Betting the presidential election

[mikelow]

A look at four tracking polls gives Bush an average lead of 2.8%. He is -180 at CRIS.

Here are some wagering options.

Bet Bush on the Iowa Electronic Markets. You have a choice
of whether he gets more or less than 52% of the two-party vote.

It's .307 over 52% and about .282 under 52%.

Can Bush break away in the final days? I think he will win, but I think his limited schedule will keep Kerry in the game. So I will bet Bush under 52% and hedge with Kerry +150.

The resaoning is that Kerry could win but lose the popular vote. While I think this theory may be bunk, it might just happen.

Comments?