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OK, I'm trying to figure something out here.

If you are in a pot HU and you flop top set or TPTK, or two pairs (or some other very strong hand), but you put your opponent on an OESD, how do you play this?

This is probably the type of hand I know least how to play.

Usually I throw out something like 2/3 pot-sized bet hoping to get called down and hoping he doesn't hit his hand. My mentality is always "Keep the pot small so I don't lose too much if he rivers me, and so he doesn't feel like the pot is big and he may go in for a huge bluff to steal whats in the middle". This has to be wrong. I know it is.

I think a pot-sized flop bet is correct here. (Most OESD's call this but not any more). Then on the turn card, you need to bet enough so that if he calls, he is calling at least 20% of the current pot. (because he will hit roughly 1 in 5 times). This gives him odds to call all the way to the river, and then if he hits you either check/fold or call his value bet if it's small enough.

The point is, he will not call a river value-bet if he doesn't hit, so you MUST MAKE HIM PAY ON BOTH THE FLOP AND TURN STREETS! Bet enough to where you are "almost" giving him odds to call. Each call they make with slightly bad odds is +EV for you. Yet if you bet too much, they won't chase it.

Example: Pot is 100 PF. You flop two pairs, he flops OESD. You bet 100, he calls.

Pot is now 300. Turn is no help to him. You should bet the BARE MINIMUM of 100 here! Betting 200 will probably not get a call from him, so I think you can fire out 125-175 and usually get called. (He will call more b/c he thinks he has "implied odds" if he hits). So say you bet 150 and he called.

Pot is 600. River doesn't help him. Now what do you do? You've bet pot on the flop, 1/2 pot on the turn...if you bet 1/4 pot does he ever make a crying call? I think if he improved to a pair he might.

Pot is 600, so do you fire out 150 here? The river isn't what is important to me here, though.

I'm mainly wanting to know if the (Pot), (1/4 - 1/2 pot), (1/4 pot) line is good HU against an OESD...

Comments appreciated in advance.

No response??? This is a legit dilemma I have. Guess it isn't considered "Poker Theory"?? Maybe I should cross-post in OOT.

As long as you bet at least the amount that makes it incorrect for her call and less than the amount for which she will fold, then your bet is good. The highest you can get this amount is the best bet you can make here. If you KNOW precisely what draw she holds, then you also KNOW not to pay her off on the river. That kills her implied odds. Since this is most often not the case, you will need to aim for the high end of the bet size in order to attempt to kill implied odds.

EDIT: Perhaps your subject is throwing people off, as it isn't very descriptive.

[KidPokerX]

huh?
So you know you have the best hand on the turn, yet still bet $150 into a $600 pot in order to induce the OESD to call?
I may not be understanding this, but by doing that you're giving your opponent correct odds to call.
The problem with this question is that you're rarely ever in a decision in which you're 100% sure. You always work with percents ("there's a 60% chance he's on a OESD, 20% chance of overpair, etc.")
Your question is too certain ("what if I know he has an OESD"?). If you're positive he has an OESD (as in you are 100% sure) then I would bet the pot the entire way down - unless you think he'd call for more.
Then, if he does hit I would auto-fold it right to him. See my point?

[chadplusplus]

Well the title of your post probably didn't help get responses, regardless...

Assuming and somehow knowing that he does indeed have an OESD, you're ahead in the hand!! Therefore...

Max size bet: bet as much as you can without him folding which depends upon reads. You want to build the pot because you ARE the favorite to win.

Min size bet: well, that takes some math...

But based upon the FTOP, you want him to make mistakes, which means that you must bet at least enough to make it a mistake for him to call. So lets try to determine exactly how much that is...

For the sake of this argument, we'll assume that if he misses, we're firing again after the turn.

So his immediate odds for hitting on the turn are 8/47, so we must make his pot odds greater than that. For the following calculations, y = your bet and x = pot size

(y) / (y + y + x) &gt; 8/47
47y &gt; 16y + 8x
31y &gt; 8x
y &gt; 8/31x ~ 1/4 * x

so, your bet must be at least greater than 1/4 the pot assuming you plan on firing again if he misses on the turn.

You get essentially the same result for the size of the turn bet, so you must bet at least 1/4 the size of the pot after the turn for him to make a mistake in calling to the river.

How do I personally play it? I usually fire a slightly greater than pot size bet out because most of the donks at $25NL and $50NL will continue to call it and if I puss out and not bet the turn, it makes his flop call a mistake even if I give him the free river card.

DISCLAIMER!! I worked the math out so that the gurus on here can correct my mistakes, coz' I'm not too sure myself - but I think its mostly correct. The only thing I can't ever remeber for sure is from which odds you subtract the one. For instance, if he has 10 cards to hit on the river, is he getting 1:4.7 odds or 1:5.2 odds?

And ladies... beware of Ron Mexico.


Edit: I was going to add something in here about implied odds... but I see it has been covered by other posters while I was drafting this.

[ QUOTE ]
huh?
So you know you have the best hand on the turn, yet still bet $150 into a $600 pot in order to induce the OESD to call?
I may not be understanding this, but by doing that you're giving your opponent correct odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I'm struggling with...do you overbet the turn to try to take whats in the pot and be on your merry way or do you want them to call and hope they don't hit the river?

In a tourney I'm going to overbet the turn b/c accumulating chips in tourney is important.

But what about in a cash game? Is the strategy to "almost give them proper odds to call"? So that if they do call, it is +EV for you? Or is it worth it to just overbet the turn and take whats already out there?

I'm assuming, like a previous poster said, that you want to bet as much as you can that you think he/she will call with the OESD. That is the proper strategy.

[ QUOTE ]
So that if they do call, it is +EV for you? Or is it worth it to just overbet the turn and take whats already out there?


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It is definately better for you to bet an amount that your opponent will call incorrectly. If no such amount exists, then it is better to take down the pot immediately than bet an amount the opponent can call correctly. (in a ring game)

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The point is, he will not call a river value-bet if he doesn't hit, so you MUST MAKE HIM PAY ON BOTH THE FLOP AND TURN STREETS!

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If you KNOW he didnt make his OESD on the river and you KNOW he wont call a river value bet, then the only play here is to check to him and make him either show his busted str8 or make him take a stab at the pot where you can c/r.

[varoadstter]

What confuses me is how someone with more than 500 posts needs to ask this question. Of course you want the guy to put money in that he shouldn't. That's how you win.

I understand your point about tournies but absent any specific info about how close either or both of you are to being pot committed, the same advice holds. You WANT opponents to bet/call without odds.

[RIDGE45]

I like what people are saying here so far.

To be concise the only things I have to add are:

1. As long as you are betting enough to make it a bad call for the villian you are playing the hand correctly.

2. If you know he will not call a bet unless he hits the straight, why not c/call or c/r (mentioned in an early post) the river. (If you know EXACTLY what draw he has the decision of c/call vs. c/r becomes much easier). Give him a shot to take a stab at a healthy pot on the river if he misses, and possibly save yourself some money if he hits (and you know he has hit).

The fact of the matter is, is that these draws are going to hit, and the hard part of this situation (that hasn't really been addressed) is how to maximize profit when they don't hit while minimizing losses when they do hit. This will take the ability of you to know what cards complete their draw, and this can be tricky.

Leading out the flop/turn as to give an OESD -ev odds to call then check/calling, check/raising, or check/folding the river (depending on what hits on the river, and if you think he has hit his straight or is bluffing) I think is the best plan.

This post wasn't as short as I was planning...