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#11
06-10-2005, 09:25 AM
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Re: Weird $215 hand
[ QUOTE ]
as a lower buyin player, my first instinct while reading this is "why did he call a raise preflop with K10s?". 1. can i get confirmation that this would be a terrible preflop call at the 33s down? 2. is it in fact correct at the 215s, and if so why? [/ QUOTE ] There are five people already in and you are on the button. I think I'd make this call even with 800 chips, every single time. Note: If you *then* go on to bet this flop, folding PF is fine. 
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#12
06-10-2005, 09:41 AM
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Re: Weird $215 hand
[ QUOTE ]
as a lower buyin player, my first instinct while reading this is "why did he call a raise preflop with K10s?". 1. can i get confirmation that this would be a terrible preflop call at the 33s down? 2. is it in fact correct at the 215s, and if so why? [/ QUOTE ] Well, let me have a go: 1. At the 215s you get 1000 chips not 800 (so calling a raise is a lower % of your stack). 2. There are 5 to the flop by the time it gets to me so for 30 chips I should get to see a T200 flop with a nice drawing hand in position. Good pot odds, great implied odds. 3. Because you get 1000 chips, and because the players are better than in the 30s you generally won't see 4 gone by Level 4. In fact it's not unusual to still be ten-handed at Level 4, and somwetimes level 5. This means that it is not correct to pass up small edges in Levels 1-3, which you can afdford to do at lower buy-ins. By the way, although the players are bad enough that you don't need to play KTs in this situation (as rarely as it will occur) at the 30s, I would argue that you probably still should as although you have less chips to play with your implied odds are actually better as your opponents (often more than 1 of them) will frequently stack off in a multi-way raised pot with not much at all.
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#15
06-10-2005, 09:55 AM
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Re: Weird $215 hand
[ QUOTE ]
Note: If you *then* go on to bet this flop, folding PF is fine. [/ QUOTE ] Heh [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I can see I have a hard job on my hands to defend my flop bet as just 'not great', rather than awful. I'll have one last go at it now & then give up & concede defeat. First, let’s look at what happens when I check. 3 times in 4 I miss my draw. Now if there’s any reasonable bet (i.e. 200ish) I should really fold as I probably won’t get paid enough to make the call. 1 time in 4 I hit my hand, which is especially nice if it’s the str8, but what value do I make on average if it’s the [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? I might make a big score but it’s definitely far from automatic as no-one indicated any strength on a drawy board on the flop. These players shouldn’t be idiots (well they actually were in this case, but I wasn’t to know that) they aren’t just going to hand over their stack with no real hand, 6 opponents and a flush on board. So when I check I think I win a medium-sized pot 1 time in 4 (possibly a little more for the times it gets checked round again), sometimes I’m lucky and win a big pot and 3 times in 4 I fold with most of my stack intact. When I bet I think I take the pot down uncontested some of the time (1 time in 3, maybe a bit more I would estimate). Some of the time I get called and some of the time (and how often seems to be the contentious point) I get re-raised. When I get called and make my hand on the turn I win a bigger pot. When I miss my draw, my chances of a free card are higher than when I check. Anyway, interesting discussion. Curtains (& you?) clearly believe that betting is a major mistake here based on the % of the time I get re-raised. I just don’t see it happening that often with a drawy board and 7 to the flop so that's why I think it’s probably a small mistake at worst rather than a big one.
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#16
06-10-2005, 10:40 AM
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Re: Weird $215 hand
i think you're overestimating when you say you'll pick up the pot 1/3 of the time (but to be fair, i play at the 33) against 6 opponents. i think betting is bad, but probably not horrible.
it seems to me the odds are very good someone has a set. that puts your equity around 33%. i haven't done the icm, but i'm guessing with pot odds that makes it barely a call. and if someone does have the nut flush draw, it's a disaster to call. there's really nothing utg can have except a set, the nut flush draw, or maybe 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. i think it's a fold, but i'd be curious to see the icm numbers on getting in against a set and top pair.
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#17
06-10-2005, 10:57 AM
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Results
[ QUOTE ]
Fold, I put UTG on A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the BB on A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. [/ QUOTE ] nh Black aces and Q9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
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#18
06-10-2005, 11:03 AM
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Re: Weird $215 hand
[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, interesting discussion. Curtains (& you?) clearly believe that betting is a major mistake here based on the % of the time I get re-raised. I just don’t see it happening that often with a drawy board and 7 to the flop so that's why I think it’s probably a small mistake at worst rather than a big one. [/ QUOTE ] Not even. It's really the number of times you get called with 6 others in (pretty much around 100%, give or take) coupled with the times you have a tough decision on the turn (around 75%, give or take.) Oh, and you're spending 1/5 of your stack on this bet so if you get called by more than one person, you're almost pot committed already. You don't have the room to make this bet. edit: Incidentally, UTG may be a moron but BB played his hand perfectly.
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#19
06-10-2005, 11:39 AM
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Re: Weird $215 hand
[ QUOTE ]
edit: Incidentally, UTG may be a moron but BB played his hand perfectly. [/ QUOTE ] Really? I think I would have led out of the BB hoping for a raise by QJ so I could get all my chips in on the flop. Raising to 450 puts him in a crappy position on the turn don't you think?
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#20
06-10-2005, 11:54 AM
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Re: Weird $215 hand
Leading out is gonna get called as often as raised (remember there are 7 people in) and then you really have a problem when the turn is, say, the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
When you raise to 450 most people in a 215 know that the rest of the chips are going in on the turn. The people that don't know that call a push anyway. I like this raise because it actually looks scarier than a push, if you think about it. (The flip side the hand I posted last night - if I'm playing a donkey I'll often bet half my stack just because it looks smaller)
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