Lay it down or double through to top 5 in chips?

JC_Saves · #1 08-20-2005, 10:37 PM

this is into a 900FPP qualifier for the WCOOP #1 event. I am about 35 about of 170, Final table gets a seat . My stack is a about 2 times the average. I have been at this table for not that many hands.

On this hand I thought that I was way ahead on the flop, so I reraised the bet out from the BB. I figured he had overcards to the board, maybe an overpair.

I know that I really screwed up 4th street by not reraising but I was a little worried that somehow I was somehow behind so I just called.

On the river 8 I could not imagine what kind of hand this guy could have called the preflop raise with and then called my big reraise on the flop, and yet just bet the small amount he bet on the Turn. I was worried that I was behind to a set, but I thought that there was more of a chance that his all-in bet as just a desperation move to buy the pot and scare me away. Was my reasoning flawed here? After all even if he lost this pot he would have still had a 2x average size stack, so I thought that the possibility that I was way ahead existed so I called. If I won this hand I would have been in top 5 in chips.

I have made some really bad laydowns in the past because my stack would still be decent if I folded. I am trying to work on reasoning through the hands better and I have been much more succesfull at calling and having it be the right move, because people were making moves. In this tournament I had made 2 calls where people bet on down to have nothing.

Thoughts on a river call or laydown?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

MP1 (t20)
Hero (t7475)
CO (t17479)
Button (t6080)
SB (t3066)
BB (t16096)
UTG (t6700)
UTG+1 (t105)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to t450, 1 fold, Button calls t450, 1 fold, BB calls t300.

Flop: (t1425) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets t450, Hero raises to t1350, Button folds, BB calls t900.

Turn: (t4125) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t450, Hero calls t450.

River: (t5025) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t13846 (All-In), Hero ?

#2 08-20-2005, 11:00 PM

I can't see him calling that flop without an overpair or a set. Then he bets out on the turn acting like he has a set. Then he gets aggressive on the river acting like he has a boat. I play too tight at times but this may be the time to fold your aces.

How loose is this guy?

I don't get the re-raising and the betting out on the turn with 5-6 suited. But, yes, a re-raise on the turn may have gotten him to lay that down.

JC_Saves · #3 08-20-2005, 11:26 PM

Yeah, the turn play is horrific. I should have pushed all in if I was going to play this hand or fold it.

What hands do you think this guy played this hand this way? and would a big stack try the same thing with a big bet on the river to scare away anyone out there? wouldn't 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK. AK maybe play this the same way?

ilikeaces · #4 08-20-2005, 11:41 PM

push the flop

benkahuna · #5 08-21-2005, 12:10 AM

Top pair pairing is scary. I think you need to decide whether you're behind or ahead and act accordingly. You either call/check small bets and fold to big action or you raise on the turn.
Did your weakness induce the river action? Maybe. Did the guy call w/ his big stack w/ a suited connector or something like a7, k7?

With a huge bet, you're probably either really ahead or really behind.

I'm folding here unless I have a really strong feeling that I shouldn't. I'm kind of a vagina in these types of situations. It's usually a bad idea to call an all in, but the guy really looks like he's not wanting you to call. If he's tricky, I fold for sure. If not, I have a real decision.

Knowing the other guy is really important and could easily break what is a difficult decision here. What does his turn bet mean? I usually blow off such bets by people in 1-2 nl as they're drawing and just act as I would have had the person not bet at all. I'm right with this decision at least 90 percent of the time, but more often in ring games. Figure out what that means and you'll know what to do. Guy could easily have an overpair or a set or just be bullying.

The more I think about this hand, the more I'm convinced the other guy has a smaller overpair. Doesn't seem like 88 either. Why would he bet so big when you look not so certain to call with your weak turn call? He could be thinking the river all in would look funny, but it looks a lot more to me like he doesn't want a call.

adanthar · #6 08-21-2005, 12:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, the turn play is horrific. I should have pushed all in if I was going to play this hand or fold it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Be specific in your answer because right now all I see in this thread is a bunch of likely results (river) oriented crap.

WSOPstar2B · #7 08-21-2005, 04:12 AM

Completely agree! Put the tough decision on him!

adanthar · #8 08-21-2005, 04:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
push the flop

[/ QUOTE ][ QUOTE ]
Completely agree! Put the tough decision on him!

[/ QUOTE ]

I know when I have aces on a 743 flop, what I really really want to do is for everyone else to fold unless they have a straight

whiskeytown · #9 08-21-2005, 04:22 AM

I'm not going to tell you what I think of the play preflop, and just try to analyze what you two have done....(yes, I like post flop/turn pushes too, but

honestly...if I were to totally analyze this from his perspective...(and that'a a good way to look at it)

he's got something - maybe JJ - a decent hand but NOT probably a reraising hand - he bets on the flop and you raise.

Turn comes - he bets again - you just call - to him, this PROBABLY looks like you're scared - you pumped the thing twice and didn't get rid of him, so now you're backing down and just trying to see the river.

(remember the old rule - when you raise, they think you have AK - always remember that...)

River comes - no A or K (what he probably put you on) - so he goes for the big push thinking he can beat you even if you do call - and thinking you might with a middle pair or even AK as some will do if they think their opponent has no pair...

it takes a few seconds of analysis, but playing it over, from his perspective on what you have done, I'd think he was playing a big pair and thought he could just take it from your AK, and if he's lucky, get a call too - could he have called with A7 or K7 or 88 - well yah... Only you know by observing the players whether he would have done that, provided you're not new to the table.

who knows...personally, if I played it the way you did and had this choice on the river, I'd call - but of course, it don't cost no money even if you lose -

know what hand would work perfect here? - AQ offsuit - it's the kind of hand that's one of the few I'll not reraise with all the time - he calls the bets and is still trying some moves for the pot since he's first to act, and after the turn, - he puts you on AK and pushes all in on the river thinking you can't call if he's read you right...

RB

JC_Saves · #10 08-21-2005, 12:04 PM

most people advocate a push on the flop or turn, which I don't do often enough.

It has nothing with results oriented thinking, other than what is the best way to play a hand on this board. I think it gets to a point where you have to decide, which I didn't, whether you are going to go all the way with this hand, if so push the turn is better, and flop may be even better due to the fact you allow someone with a PP to catch up or maybe someone to hit their kicker.

I think this person might have called on the turn with his overpair, but he may fold and it is a nice pot here. Either way if I push the turn I am ahead majority of all times and I just made him make a mistake, the flop almost without a doubt we are ahead unless he hit a miracle set.