Help me fix my biggest leak

frostbrn · #1 08-20-2005, 11:29 PM

Pokerstars $10+1 (1 R+A allowed) 160 left, top 99 cash.

It seems like these types of hands are all about making correct reads, but for some reason, I always end up making the correct read in my head, but then doubting my own deduction and make a bad decision.

I had only been at this table about 11 hands or so, all of the larger stacks had seemed very TAG.

Any feedback on this hand would be much appreciated.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) converter

Button (t18682)
Hero (t21950)
BB (t35128)
UTG (t22070)
UTG+1 (t30858)
MP1 (t17148)
MP2 (t26850)
MP3 (t9370)
CO (t20694)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t1600, 5 folds, Hero calls t1200, BB calls t800.

Flop: (t4000) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets t4000, BB folds, UTG+1 raises to t8000, Hero calls t4000.

Turn: (t20000) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t12300 (All-In), UTG+1 calls t12300.

River: (t44600) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t44600

#2 08-21-2005, 12:05 AM

I almost always checkraise in a situation like this. That will almost always get them to fold overcards, plus gaining some chips in the process. If they call/raise you're done as they almost definitely have you beat. If you bet, they could easily raise with AK or AQ or something, but you've got a lot of chips to lose to an overpair.

McMelchior · #3 08-21-2005, 12:17 AM

Preflop you call villain's min-raise for 6% of your stack ... with the cost of sitting one round slightly below t1,600 and your stack of t21,000 I thinks it's an OK play.

On the flop you have obviously decided that you're ahead; if not your call of his minimum-raise for 25% of your remaining stack makes no sense. If you're right and villain has two over-cards it's a big mistake to flat call his raise - you have to move all-in here to make him pay to draw to one of his 6 outs.

But unless you have specific reasons to believe that he's on two over-cards and not TT through AA I'd say your over-playing your pocket 99 ... you're NOT getting sufficient pot odds (or implied odds) to call his flop raise.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

CardSharpCook · #4 08-21-2005, 01:07 AM

Well said, McM

nightlyraver · #5 08-21-2005, 01:26 AM

I think your problem is your discomfort playing after the flop. I hate how the hand you posted played out. Here are some alternate ways to play the hand:

1) Reraise preflop. You could reraise to find out exactly where you stand and get value out of the hand. If you raise to t9,000 you are only offering UTG odds of about 1.54:1 - this may make him lay down a slightly better hand (like TT) and will force him to either fold a hand like AK or call unprofitably. If Villian moves all-in, you really need a read to believe you are not beaten. Note that reraising only to t8,000 gives Villian odds of 1.625:1, just about right to make calling with AK correct.

2) You could flat call the raise and check-raise the flop. If you take any more heat, you are most definately beaten. You really need a good read to justify a contrary conclusion.

3) You could move all-in after you're raised on the flop. If you have a read that suggests that Villian likely has an unimproved A-high, moving all-in is a good move.

4) You could fold to the raise on the flop. Unless you think that the raise is a semi-bluff of some sore (like w/ AK) you are behind and drawing to 2 outs.

Notice that calling the raise on the flop is pointless. If you have the best hand it needs protecting. If you don't, you will only rarely draw out. If you had a read or it was a heads up battle then things would be different.

WSOPstar2B · #6 08-21-2005, 02:56 AM

Couple of questions related to this reply.

What is the correct odds to call w/AK? What if AKs?

If he were to reraise b4 the flop to 9k it would be almost 50% of his chips. Therefore, would it really be better to either just call or reraise all in instead of raising it to 9K?

nightlyraver · #7 08-21-2005, 01:32 PM

The "correct" odds to call really depends on the range that Villian puts you on for reraising that amount. See Harrington on Hold'em for a break down in detail. In short, Villian "should" consider your possible holdings, assign probabilities to each and conclude when it is profitable to call. There really is no exact number. However, the poorer the odds and/or the tighter the raiser, the better the hand Villian needs to call the reraise with. It's unlikely that Villian will run through a whole math problem on the spot, but many players will consider the difference between pot odds of 2:1, 1.75:1 and 1.4:1, knowing that the 2:1 odds are a clear call against all but the most predictable players whereby the reraise can ONLY mean AA or KK; the 1.75:1 odds are usually a good call unless the reraiser is very tight; and the 1.4:1 odds or less usually dictate a clear fold unless the reraiser is quite loose.

As an aside, AKs is only about 2% better than AKo.

I don't like the all-in reraise for a few reasons. First, we really want to reraise the same amount every time in relation to the money in the pot. If I have AK, AA, QQ or I'm on a steal, I'm still reraising the same amount so my raises are disguised. Second, the all-in looks like we don't want a call. So, unless we have been moving in as a standard play, we may be inducing the call that we really wish to avoid, since we are sorta broadcasting a vulnerable pair with the all-in. Third, we offer Villian a better oppertunity to make a mistake by offering poor pot odds. In the long run, we make money if he calls often getting these pot odds. Fourth, we may induce a call later in the game when we pull the same play with AA or KK. Fifth, if Villian flat calls and the flop comes all low cards, we can stick in a reasonable bet and fold out an AK-type hand.

frostbrn · #8 08-21-2005, 03:44 PM

I think I called the raise preflop with my stack size because I THOUGHT I could play the hand fairly well on the flop. I didn't want to check right away and let him bet with overcards, so I decided to bet and see where I was at. When he hit me with the minraise, I decided to think for a minute about his possible holdings:

1) A7/K7, very unlikely that he would raise in such early position with these hands, plus he hadn't shown down any funny moves like that since I'd been at the table so I have no reason to believe that he would do it now.

2) 33/55/77 (hit a set on the flop), any of these would make the minraise make perfect sense, but only 77 and MAYBE 55 would get raised like that in such early position preflop.

3) AK/AQ/KQ, it seems that the minraise in his situation with any of these holdings just doesn't make sense on such a n absolute rag flop like that. No draw, and only 6 outs I felt like if he did minraise with any of those hands he would be pulling an excellent move feigning that he had enough strength to survive the next 2 cards and wanted me along for the ride.

4) A bigger pair, This would make sense with both the PFR, and the minraise on the flop. But the minraise would seem to indicate that he likely has a premium pair if he's not worried about me drawing to an A or K on the next card. TT or JJ was a lot less likely in my mind that QQ, KK, or AA

I made up my mind that I was beat on that flop, most likely to either AA or KK, or to 77 or 55. I can't for the life of me figure out why I then decided to call the minraise. I think the juiciness of the pot plus the "relatively" cheap price to call tainted my judgment. I think the all-in move on the turn was 75% controlled by tilt. I was desperately hoping I was wrong and he had overcards, and if not I had outs to the straight or set.

As a follow up, what kind of holdings could you laydown in my situation in terms of overpairs when faced with a minraise on that flop? TT? JJ? maybe even QQ?

nightlyraver · #9 08-21-2005, 09:05 PM

Once he miniraises, my actions are directly linked to my reads. TT and JJ are good candidates for a fold against most opponents. Even QQ can get thrown in the muck if Villian is a TAG. On the flip side, against a LAG or otherwise tricky player I'm sometimes pushing almost any overpair. It's really dependant on the Villian. Against a total unknown, I usually err on the side of caution.