all in or stop and go?

[illegit]

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And if he has an A7 or something like that, we'll be 5:1 on the flop if he misses, so we especially don't want to give him the chance to fold.

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I'm still very torn about this hand.

The way I look at this hand is, how can I get this guy to make a mistake?

If we push pf here, calling with A7 would not be a mistake (or any one over card hand). Calling with A high after missing the flop would be.

I'm not saying go for the stop and go, just something to think about.

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True. But if he folds 44 on a AK5 flop then he's NOT making a mistake, one we want him to make. I think just in general the overall strength of your hand against his hand range is enough that you want all his money in the pot. But I'm not sure.

[JohnG]

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I think just in general the overall strength of your hand against his hand range is enough that you want all his money in the pot. But I'm not sure.

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In my mind, the stop and go is for vulnerable hands you still think are likely best, (Say A5o as an example). It's not for those times where we can easily be called by hands we have buried.

Hands like A5, 44, KQ can easily be the best hand against a steal raise, but is not likely far in front when it is, and when you happen to be beat, your allin bet on the flop may fold out some of those better hands such as 66 or A8. TT or AK on the other hand can be significantly in front and should probably get the money in preflop.

[gergery]

I'm all in here. TT is too big a hand to stopngo and lets him get away too cheaply from a wide range of hands that would call here, including lower pairs, lower connectors, Qx/Kx/Ax where x is lower than T.

-g

[mlagoo]

i'm pretty sure this could all be solved with math, but im not very good at math [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

it would look something like...

(1) if we stop and go
(a) x1% of the time, villian pairs an overcard on the flop and we get it allin drawing to 2 outs.
(b) x2% of the time, villian had an overpair preflop and we get it allin drawing to 2 outs.
(c) x3% of the time, villian "makes a big call" with unpaired overcards and we get it allin with villian drawing to 6 outs.
(d) x4% of the time, villian "makes a big call" with an underpair and we get it allin with villian drawing to 2 or 5 outs.
(e) x5% of the time, villian does not connect and folds and we take down the 1300 chips in the pot.

(2) if we push preflop
(a) x1% of the time, we get it allin on the good side of a race
(b) x2% of the time, we get it allin as an 80/20 fav.
(c) x3% of the time, we get it allin as a 20/80 dog.
(d) x4% of the time, we get it allin as a ~70/30 fav (i am home for christmas and dont have any of my poker tools with me) against a hand like A8.
(e) x5% of the time, villian picks up some wierd draw on the flop and we get it allin with villian drawing to 8-15 outs twice.
(e) x6% of the time, villian folds and we take down the 900 chips in the pot.

and i think thats everything.

now all that has to be done is to give villian a CO opening range and a preflop and postflop calling range, and crunch numbers. this is where things get a bit fuzzy for me.

considering the situation intuitively, i think its more profitable to push preflop.

[M.B.E.]

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The way I look at this hand is, how can I get this guy to make a mistake?

If we push pf here, calling with A7 would not be a mistake (or any one over card hand). Calling with A high after missing the flop would be.

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Yeah, but you also want to avoid making "mistakes" yourself (such as pushing the flop those times an ace does hit the board).

"How can I get my opponent to make a mistake" is not that useful a way of approaching problems like this because what's really important is the size of the mistake being made.