Royal flush hand (w/ added considerations)

[ajmargarine]

Villian (SB) is a bluffer. I played this so weak and got what I wanted which was a river bet from him, because I think he has absolutely air, or maybe one pair that can't withstand any pressure.

$1/$2 5-handed

Preflop: Hero is BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Villain (SB) posts a blind of $1.
3 folds, Villian calls $1, Hero raises to $7, Villain calls $5.

Flop: ($13.50) K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (2 players) </font>
Villian checks, Hero bets $4!!, Villian calls $4.

Turn: ($21) T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (2 players) </font>
Villian checks, Hero bets $7!!, Villian calls $7.

River: (34.25) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (2 players) </font>
Villian bets $14, Hero ???

Now the added consideration is this. The site has a high hand bonus for the day. There's 6 hours left in the promotion and one other player has a royal already. You have to show down the hand to get a piece of the bonus. If I raise here and he folds, I get no bonus. The bonus is $50 which would be split amongst all winners. At best, I'm looking at $25 gained from the promotion. $16.67 if someone else gets a royal before the promotion runs out. Do I call and take the sure bonus, or can I make more enough times here by raising, taking into consideration the times he folds. My read on him is that he is going to fold this quite often if I put any kind of raise in here. I think he's bluffing with air/small pair here.

[Shibby]

Stack sizes?

I'd rather min raise to induce a push than take a 1/8 buyin bonus. If he plays back at you even 1/10 times you're ahead by raising. imho.

Edit: Also realize if he plays back at you you get to have the $25 bonus as well as his stack.

[ajmargarine]

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Stack sizes?

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Villian $145 at the start of the hand, Hero covers.

[ajmargarine]

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I played this so weak and got what I wanted which was a river bet from him...

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I should clarify this. What I really wanted was for him to c/r me big on the turn, which is something he's done a few times during the session when faced with weakness. Or come alive and lead the river with a PSB, which he's also done if it looks like the bettor doesn't like his hand too much. So, I kinda got what I wanted, but not really.

[RiverFenix]

I like feigning the weakness here on the turn by betting small.

Also, i dont think he'll call anything other than a minraise since hed like to see your holding.

[rikz]

I'd push the river. Sure, if he folds then I'll miss out on some money I would have won with a min-raise that he probably would have called, but on the chance that I can win his whole stack with the absolute nuts on a board that he could easily think he's ahead makes me want to push and hope he has a low flush, or a straight, or a set that he thinks is good. No way he puts you exactly on Ad Jd.

[ajmargarine]

Albert, of all the people on this forum, I thought I could count on you for a mathematical, reasoned EV analysis of this situation which I found to be very interesting. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Basically, if I call the bet, I am assured of making, let's say on average, $20 from the bonus (sometimes $25, sometimes $16.67). I'm about 75% sure he's going to fold to any kind of raise from me. If I raise and he calls, I get both his added $$$ plus the bonus, so it's win-win. I'm trying to wrap my head around what's the best move.

I remember a similar situation from an MTT a long time ago. It was a bounty tournament where if you knock out certain players you get a bonus. After the flop, a bountied player overbet all-in, a player went all-in behind him for a bit more, and, in a place where I would normally fold, I called the all-ins with an OESD because of the bounty. Analysis afterward showed that even though I didn't have pot odds to make the call, the bounty award on the line made up the difference and made it +EV for me to call. Anyways, in the OP hand, I minraised and he folded. No more $$$, no bonus. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[zaphod]

Too bad.
I am unsure about the best line here.

I played some HU limit at few months ago, when i rivered a Royal flush. At the moment my opponent was steaming, and he had lost quite a few big hands lately, and his stack was mostly gone. At the river we keept raising eachother(no cap on the amount of raises) and luckily he did get all his money in the middle. It was not until later that i thought about the bonus. The bonus was much bigger than the amount i won on the hand itself so my raising on the end was stupid.... But luckily it ended well.