#11
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Re: Squeeze play gone horribly wrong
[ QUOTE ]
Can I spin it off as an image play, or is it just bad in all aspects? [/ QUOTE ] I will get out of line (as usual) and say that imo its not plainly stupid play. Assuming that he plays like that only with AA and KK , KK is twice as likely now. There is now 1000 in the pot and you risk 1650 to win it... Now : 33% (for AA)- your results = 90%*(-1650) + 10% (+2650) = -1220 66% (for KK)- your results = -1650 + (p*2650 + (1-p)*33%*4300) where p is probability of him folding KK to your allin. Break even point is at : (-1/3*1220) + (2/3)(-1650 + (p*2650 + (1-p)*33%*4300) = 0 Which brings us p = 67.9% So if you think that he will fold kings 2 times out of 3 in this spot this play is break even. So yeah that's kinda optimistic but not THAT stupid... Best wishes |
#12
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Re: Squeeze play gone horribly wrong
hes never folding kings he has 350 left in his stack
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#13
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Re: Squeeze play gone horribly wrong
[ QUOTE ]
he has 350 left in his stack [/ QUOTE ] Jeez... I misread the post and did the calculations for 2k stacks ... ok so I think the play is lame [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I will left previous post untouched though maybe someone will find it interesting... |
#14
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Re: Squeeze play gone horribly wrong
So I suppose I should be folding every single hand except the other AA? I wonder how many posters would actually be able to fold KK in this spot? Anyway, I should learn math. Although as a general rule it's absurd to fold KK to a 50 BB stack, it's probably right in this instance.
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#15
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Re: Squeeze play gone horribly wrong
no, folding KK here is incredibly stupid
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#16
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Re: Squeeze play gone horribly wrong
[ QUOTE ]
I should learn math. [/ QUOTE ] Don't bother right behind English math is the most overrated subject taught in the United States. |
#17
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Re: Squeeze play gone horribly wrong
The pf reraise is fine.
But once UTG flips over his cards and shows you his AA, you have to fold. |
#18
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Re: Squeeze play gone horribly wrong
[ QUOTE ]
Although as a general rule it's absurd to fold KK to a 50 BB stack, it's probably right in this instance. [/ QUOTE ] I would never fold KK in this spot. My assumptions about his hand range and calculations were both way off because I assumed 100B stacks. With Villain having 50BB he may have A9+ 88+ or even some other crap so calling with KK is mandatory imo |
#19
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Re: Squeeze play gone horribly wrong
Ok, now I'm confused. This is probably the most obvious AA ever. Why should I definitely fold A2s every time but not KK? Are you now saying that my push with A2s is good because he's a 50 BB stack? It's one or the other--if it's a bad push, it would be bad to push KK as well.
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#20
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Re: Squeeze play gone horribly wrong
KK will sometimes be a very big favorite. A2s is behind 100% of the time.
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