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  #51  
Old 12-02-2005, 11:41 AM
BradleyT BradleyT is offline
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

What people aren't seeming to grasp is that sharks don't drown.

If there are 4,823 sharks on party this year, how many will there be next year?
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  #52  
Old 12-02-2005, 11:46 AM
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

[ QUOTE ]
Great post!! Again a few folks are not following the argument, so to boil it down...

Hypothesis: As online poker becomes more and more available to the third world, the average earn of an online poker player will decrease.

Currently, the average poker player comes from an industrialized nation where the avg wage is much higher than that of the third world.

For a worker in an industrialized nation to take up online poker as a career, his earn should normally be higher than that which he can make outside of poker. The same will hold true for a third world worker.

OP is not saying that third world players will be better... they will simply be satisfied with a far smaller earn, than a worker from the avg industrialized nation.

ie; Adding thousands of happy 0.2 bb/100 winners into online poker is not a good thing for those of us that make far more than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think the online sites would/could segregate the market? The only site i ever had boot me for being American was Expekt. It seems like it might be dificult although Neteller could tell that i logged on outside of the USA once and froze my account for supscisious behaving, so i guess they can track ips. i hope that when the US government regulates the industry, that they will require some sort of segmentation.
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  #53  
Old 12-02-2005, 01:24 PM
grinin grinin is offline
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, and as these people get into online poker some % become fish and some % become sharks. There is no good reason this % should differ overseas

[/ QUOTE ]

Again this is not the argument.

There is a very good reason that once players DO enter from the third world, those who are winning players will be willing to play at a far less earn than current players.

The avg worker in US, EU, etc makes over $10/hour (number pulled out of air). The avg. worker in the third world makes less than $1/hr. This differential will drive US, EU players who make less than $10 per hour playing poker, OUT, and third world players who can make more than $1 per hour IN. Although the US player who could make $1-$9 per hour would be +EV, he simply has better EV opportunities outside of poker, this is not the case for the third world player. There is simply an untapped, underpaid, group of billions of people, many of whom will have the intellect to beat poker for far more than they could earn in regular jobs in their homeland. They will be willing to play for far less than I am.
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  #54  
Old 12-02-2005, 01:25 PM
grinin grinin is offline
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

[ QUOTE ]
Saying that poker will run out of fish is like saying the world is going to run out of people.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reading comprehension is not your strong point. At not time did OP make a statement such as this.
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  #55  
Old 12-02-2005, 01:26 PM
grinin grinin is offline
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think the online sites would/could segregate the market?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. But they won't. It is not in their interests.
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  #56  
Old 12-02-2005, 01:37 PM
TheGame1020 TheGame1020 is offline
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The few Russians and Chinese that have some wealth already have made some levels more rock gardenish.

[/ QUOTE ]
Boy, it really sucks that your opponents no longer have exploitable tendencies. How will you ever make money?

[/ QUOTE ]

NH sir.
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  #57  
Old 12-02-2005, 01:54 PM
CORed CORed is offline
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

I think that online games (Party anyway) are getting tougher and may continue to get tougher, but I think they will reach an equilibrium. Sure, some fish will either give up or learn to play well enough that they are no longer fish, but I think an equilibrium will be reached. There are plenty of fish who gamble for entertainment, and will continue to do so. The casinos haven't run out of slot and table game players, and I don't think poker (online or B&M) will run out of fish any time soon. Also, as the games get tougher, some of the borderline winners will becom losers. If their primary motivation for playing is to make money, and they find it is no longer possible, some of them will quit. I'm more concerned about bots. I think making a bot that can play winning poker is very difficult, but I don't think it's impossible. If I had a year to spare, I think I could do it myself. Unless poker sites' bot detection is good enough to keep most of the bots out, I think they could eventually dry up the games.
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  #58  
Old 12-02-2005, 02:27 PM
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

[ QUOTE ]
Reading comprehension is not your strong point. At not time did OP make a statement such as this.

[/ QUOTE ]
Apparently grammar is not yours?
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  #59  
Old 12-02-2005, 02:44 PM
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you think the online sites would/could segregate the market?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. But they won't. It is not in their interests.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is. I would argue that its in their interest to kick the best players to the curb. They take more money off the tables than they contribute in rake. Thing about it this way. Given a finite number of players and finite bankrolls, would the site be better off if all players had the same skill, or if it was highly polarized with the better players taking the worse players money? People of equal skill swap the money, letting it get raked and reraked, good players take their winnings (raked once) and deposit it in the bank.

Not a perfect comparison but one could see how the same arguement could be made for segmenting the market. Allowing an unproportional number of good players from developing countries would lead to more money being pulled off the table and less total rake being generated.

This thought process requires a long term view on profitablity/rake, not short term where obviously the more players the better.
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  #60  
Old 12-02-2005, 02:45 PM
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Default Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, and as these people get into online poker some % become fish and some % become sharks. There is no good reason this % should differ overseas

[/ QUOTE ]

Again this is not the argument.

There is a very good reason that once players DO enter from the third world, those who are winning players will be willing to play at a far less earn than current players.

The avg worker in US, EU, etc makes over $10/hour (number pulled out of air). The avg. worker in the third world makes less than $1/hr. This differential will drive US, EU players who make less than $10 per hour playing poker, OUT, and third world players who can make more than $1 per hour IN. Although the US player who could make $1-$9 per hour would be +EV, he simply has better EV opportunities outside of poker, this is not the case for the third world player. There is simply an untapped, underpaid, group of billions of people, many of whom will have the intellect to beat poker for far more than they could earn in regular jobs in their homeland. They will be willing to play for far less than I am.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yup, seems so obvious yet people refuse to admit their cash cow is limited.
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