Why Current Online Win Rates Won't Persist

[SinCityGuy]

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If there's N sharks in the kiddie pool, then at some point there will be diminishing returns for the (N+1)th shark.

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Something that tends to get overlooked is the fact that most of the sharks are playing anywhere from 4 to 12 tables, and most of the fish are playing one table.

In the long run, this will probably result in the same thing that happens in commercial overfishing, when fishing mortality reaches a level where the stock biomass has negative marginal growth.

In online poker, new signups are declining, while the number of multitablers is increasing. The games will get much tougher over the next few years at all limits.

[gabyyyyy]

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[ QUOTE ]
If there's N sharks in the kiddie pool, then at some point there will be diminishing returns for the (N+1)th shark.

[/ QUOTE ]

Something that tends to get overlooked is the fact that most of the sharks are playing anywhere from 4 to 12 tables, and most of the fish are playing one table.

In the long run, this will probably result in the same thing that happens in commercial overfishing, when fishing mortality reaches a level where the stock biomass has negative marginal growth.

In online poker, new signups are declining, while the number of multitablers is increasing. The games will get much tougher over the next few years at all limits.

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Good Id rather play decent players.

Atleast I won't get sucked out on as much.

[BradleyT]

I hope you're being funny but my gut feeling is you aren't trying to be.

[MicroBob]

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I hope you're being funny but my gut feeling is you aren't trying to be.

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[Innocentius]

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You act like being a winning poker player is like joining the army. You sign your name, take a physical, and get rolling. It does not work like that. Why do you think that 92% of the people lose?

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This point has been made by a number of posters, and I think it's missing the OPs point completely. Let's assume that 8% of all players today are good enough to beat the games for at least a small amount. This doesn't mean that 92% of todays players are inherently incapable of becoming good poker players, or that if 100 dedicated and smart nigerians decide to try to make a living at poker, 92 of them will fail. Most of the playes today play recreationally, and don't bother much about improving their game, something that the 100 nigerians in my example would probably do.

That said, I don't agree with the OP that this is likely to happen, especially not anytime soon. The reasons for this (lacking funds, education, infrastructure, etc.) has already been elaborated by other posters.

[timprov]

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In the long run, this will probably result in the same thing that happens in commercial overfishing, when fishing mortality reaches a level where the stock biomass has negative marginal growth.


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Except that we don't then eat the worst fishermen. There the metaphor falls apart.

[grinin]

Great post!! Again a few folks are not following the argument, so to boil it down...

Hypothesis: As online poker becomes more and more available to the third world, the average earn of an online poker player will decrease.

Currently, the average poker player comes from an industrialized nation where the avg wage is much higher than that of the third world.

For a worker in an industrialized nation to take up online poker as a career, his earn should normally be higher than that which he can make outside of poker. The same will hold true for a third world worker.

OP is not saying that third world players will be better... they will simply be satisfied with a far smaller earn, than a worker from the avg industrialized nation.

ie; Adding thousands of happy 0.2 bb/100 winners into online poker is not a good thing for those of us that make far more than that.

[mackthefork]

A 0.2 bb/100 player could easily loose even a 2000 bb roll, I would reckon third world players might tighten up the lower limits for a time, because what they can earn there at say 25/50c limit is plenty, this might create its own set of problems for higher limit pros in the west.

Mack

[SinCityGuy]

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Except that we don't then eat the worst fishermen.

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That is true. They just quit and move on to something else.

[MyTurn2Raise]

jeez... and I was worried Ljubljana was going to take it all over.

The Chinese and Russians too; where's McCarthy?