Economic `Armageddon' predicted

[Il_Mostro]

Boston globe
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Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.
But you should hear what he's saying in private.
Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including a group at Fidelity.
His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''

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The Economist
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The dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency—its preferred store of value, if you will—is gradually coming to an end. And, ironically, the fact that it has become so popular in recent years will only hasten its demise.

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Will we really sort this one out?

[Dynasty]

I'm curious about how many times "experts" have predicted economic armageddon over the past 60 years.

[wacki]

Why do they do that? You think that would destroy their credibility. And how many times have you seen them predict a 90% chance of economic armageddon?

[Il_Mostro]

I have no idea. But I do know that past performance is only a really reliable meter of past performance... And as far as I understand some of the "fundamentals" are looking bleak today, things like:
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To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, he said, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day.
That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings.
Sustainable? Hardly.

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Twenty years ago the total debt of U.S. households was equal to half the size of the economy.
Today the figure is 85 percent.

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From the Boston Globe article.

I've read many articles saying things like this lately, comparing to previous crashes and showing that today things look like they did just before them. Not a proof we will have a meltdown, but at least cause for concern

[goldcowboy]

Roach is probably one of those economists who have predicted ten of the last two depressions

[Il_Mostro]

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Roach is probably one of those economists who have predicted ten of the last two depressions

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Do you have any references to this, or are you just failing to be funny?

[The once and future king]

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And how many times have you seen them predict a 90% chance of economic armageddon?



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None that I can recall. Slowdowns sure, but not armeggedon.

[jakethebake]

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None that I can recall. Slowdowns sure, but not armeggedon.

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There have been a bunch of them. Even whole books written about it. I don't know that most have used the word "Armageddon" but they've been equally as hyperbolic.

[The once and future king]

Please give an an example.

[jakethebake]

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Roach is probably one of those economists who have predicted ten of the last two depressions

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Do you have any references to this, or are you just failing to be funny?

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He's right. I don't have the dates. But Roach is one of those that is constantly predicting meltdowns years before they occur and then saying, "See? I told you so."