Why I hate "Look at my 500-SNG penis" posts - Page 5

Double Down · #41 10-25-2005, 07:30 AM

I say we get to the bottom of this and really try to figure out how many games get into the long run. There is a way to figure this out. Let's say for the sake of argument that the average vig for sngs is 10%. So all players on average have a -10% ROI. Now, someone who knows how to calculate standard deviation, figure this out:

After how many sngs would being within let's say -8 to -10% happen 99.999% of the time?

After how many sngs would being within -20 to 0% happen 99.9999% of the time?

Let's say it was 2,000. And after 2,000 sngs you were showing a ROI of 15%. This is probably a good indicator that you are a winning player because statistically, you should overwhelmingly be between -20% and break even, so unless you're an incredible statistical anomaly, you are probably a winning player.

You could calculate the SD a different way. By entering your number of sngs and your ROI, you can calculate within 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations (which I think are 66, 95, and 99.9 percent respectively, yes?) the range in which your ROI probably is.

Would someone who knows more about standard deviation care to delve into this a little deeper?

flyingmoose · #42 10-25-2005, 07:54 AM

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I say we get to the bottom of this and really try to figure out how many games get into the long run. There is a way to figure this out. Let's say for the sake of argument that the average vig for sngs is 10%. So all players on average have a -10% ROI. Now, someone who knows how to calculate standard deviation, figure this out:

After how many sngs would being within let's say -8 to -10% happen 99.999% of the time?

After how many sngs would being within -20 to 0% happen 99.9999% of the time?

Let's say it was 2,000. And after 2,000 sngs you were showing a ROI of 15%. This is probably a good indicator that you are a winning player because statistically, you should overwhelmingly be between -20% and break even, so unless you're an incredible statistical anomaly, you are probably a winning player.

You could calculate the SD a different way. By entering your number of sngs and your ROI, you can calculate within 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations (which I think are 66, 95, and 99.9 percent respectively, yes?) the range in which your ROI probably is.

Would someone who knows more about standard deviation care to delve into this a little deeper?

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This has been done, and after a certain number of SnGs you can certainly know the odds that you are a winning player. Of course, all math needs assumptions, and to find your win rate (or evidence that you're really a winning player) you would have to assume that the skill level of you and of the average opponent has not changed since you started playing. Considering the skill level of the average opponent changes based on what time of the day you play, this would be a very big assumption.

Basically, you never know your win rate, you have to assume it. Then again, it doesn't really matter what your exact win rate is, unless you feel like strutting it all over the forum in a pair of chapps.

Double Down · #43 10-25-2005, 07:58 AM

Could you explain to me how to figure it out? Like if my ROI is 15% after 2,000 then what are the odds that my true ROI is between 14-16%? What are the odds that I might still be a losing player?

PrayingMantis · #44 10-25-2005, 08:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I say we get to the bottom of this and really try to figure out how many games get into the long run. There is a way to figure this out. Let's say for the sake of argument that the average vig for sngs is 10%. So all players on average have a -10% ROI. Now, someone who knows how to calculate standard deviation, figure this out:

After how many sngs would being within let's say -8 to -10% happen 99.999% of the time?

After how many sngs would being within -20 to 0% happen 99.9999% of the time?

Let's say it was 2,000. And after 2,000 sngs you were showing a ROI of 15%. This is probably a good indicator that you are a winning player because statistically, you should overwhelmingly be between -20% and break even, so unless you're an incredible statistical anomaly, you are probably a winning player.

You could calculate the SD a different way. By entering your number of sngs and your ROI, you can calculate within 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations (which I think are 66, 95, and 99.9 percent respectively, yes?) the range in which your ROI probably is.

Would someone who knows more about standard deviation care to delve into this a little deeper?

[/ QUOTE ]

This was discussed and "solved" many times in the past, but it is still not relevant to the points I've made. I'm talking about a completely different kind of problem, which has to do with the information you gain from OTHER players/posters and their results, and how biased it is - i.e, what defines your particular sample.

Obviously, information coming from ONE person and that's it (in your particular case - this person is "you", but it doesn't matter for this discussion) is a very small indication of anything, since it's impossible to determine one's level of "luckiness" (that is - how "normal" are one's results) without a reference or comparison to a sample of any kind. There is no meaning to standard deviation in a vacuum, unless you _assume_ something about what should be normal results (or "believe" in something to begin with), and that's the theoretic problem you have here, or the logical difficulty.

Double Down · #45 10-25-2005, 08:14 AM

I thought that the point of standard deviation WAS to determine your "luckiness" versus your "skills", essentially, based on results, what are the odds that it is a good or bad swing and what are the odds that it is mathematically where it should be.

We can do it for other subjective gambling endeavors such as a card counter in blackjack, why not something with a set buyin such as a SNG? It seems like we should be able to. Educate me on the subject, I'm very interested. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

#46 10-25-2005, 08:34 AM

The look at my dick posts are usually good for a laugh but they are getting old.

AA suited · #47 10-25-2005, 09:49 AM

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If you want to know if you are any good, ask a long term winner to watch some of your HHs.

If you want to know what's sustainable, ask a long term winner what their ROI/ITM at a certain level has been. (Or search one of the 9384268268726127967234 posts on the topic.)

Irieguy

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thx for this post irie. it made me look at how many sngs i've played.

i never knew the total b4 because databases being full, thus needing to create a new one. and also new accts and user names, but got errors when i tried to alias them to another.

so basically i had a few separate datasets.

wow.. i've played 4000 50+5's. and the roi makes my e-penis go bong! [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

but you dont want me looking at your HH. here's a sample of my interpretations: Karak567 HH Thread

thx again for posting this Irie. now to get a cart to wheel around my e-penis [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

kevstreet · #48 10-25-2005, 09:55 AM

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Since you are replying to my post you must be talking about strippers.

How many strippers did your wife have to make out with before you knew it is sustainable?

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READ THE [censored] FAQ!!!

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Very nice Curtains...

zipppy · #49 10-25-2005, 10:11 AM

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if someone achieves something they are proud of, and post hopeing for a pat on the back and words of encouragement...i have no problem with it.

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pokerlaw · #50 10-25-2005, 10:30 AM

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Imagine if every registered user of 2+2 played a set of 500 SNGs.

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what was this number (i.e. how many registered users are there on 2+2)?