Stop'n'go - terrible, or good move?

This hand really interests me and I think it is close between folding preflop and using a Stop and Go. I think calling and seeing the flop and then deciding what to do is the worst choice.

Let's get an estimate of your chip stack among the various actions here:

fold preflop--143K
fold postflop--123K
S&G lose--65K
S&G villain folds--218K
S&G villain calls you win--276K

I would ask myself these questions before deciding:

1) How likely is it that villain has a big pair here (JJ or better)? Lacking any read, it smells like it sure could be a big pair. If you think a high chance that this is the case then don’t even go on to question #2

2) How likely is villain to fold Ace high, King high, Queen high if he misses the flop? Part of this answer lies in the payout structure and how likely villain may be looking to "move up the ladder"--always monitor chat for hints on this. I think you are looking for him to fold 20% of flops or more to make the play profitable.

Surely if he doesn’t have JJ or better then there are at least some flops he folds to a S&G. Doing a little math and assuming he folds about 20% of the flops and of the 80% he calls, he will win about 70% of those:

After your preflop call, you have 123K remaining
20% he folds=218K
24% you win=276K
56% you lose=65K

My math comes out to an equity of about 147K by running a S&G here. The more often he folds, the higher your equity. If he only folds 10% of the time, your equity would come out around 142K. Notice that if he’s only folding 10-15% of flops, you can have around this same equity with less variance by folding preflop. But if you call preflop, a S&G is a significant increase to the 123K you have after the call.

So do you want more variance here or not? With the payout structures so top heavy and the fact that you can’t be busted in this hand, chip variance may be okay. If so S&G > fold preflop > call and decide.

[Rooger]

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1) How likely is it that villain has a big pair here (JJ or better)? Lacking any read, it smells like it sure could be a big pair. If you think a high chance that this is the case then don’t even go on to question #2

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I don't think there's a big chance. With his stack, I would expect him to limp it, or shove it. The min-raise had been made often in late position, with these blinds.
Probably overcards, maybe a small pocket pair.

[ QUOTE ]
2) How likely is villain to fold Ace high, King high, Queen high if he misses the flop? Part of this answer lies in the payout structure and how likely villain may be looking to "move up the ladder"--always monitor chat for hints on this. I think you are looking for him to fold 20% of flops or more to make the play profitable.

Surely if he doesn’t have JJ or better then there are at least some flops he folds to a S&G. Doing a little math and assuming he folds about 20% of the flops and of the 80% he calls, he will win about 70% of those:

After your preflop call, you have 123K remaining
20% he folds=218K
24% you win=276K
56% you lose=65K

My math comes out to an equity of about 147K by running a S&G here. The more often he folds, the higher your equity. If he only folds 10% of the time, your equity would come out around 142K. Notice that if he’s only folding 10-15% of flops, you can have around this same equity with less variance by folding preflop. But if you call preflop, a S&G is a significant increase to the 123K you have after the call.

So do you want more variance here or not? With the payout structures so top heavy and the fact that you can’t be busted in this hand, chip variance may be okay. If so S&G > fold preflop > call and decide.

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I don't know how often he folds - that's also why I made the thread. The payout structure might make him call more often - we just made the top 20, no prize increment before the final table.
If he catches a pair, he'll probably never fold. Say this happens 35% percent of the time if he has overcards. If he has a small pocket pair, overcards will hit far more often.
Given that, I think he'll fold more than 20% of all flops.

what hands do YOU minraise for half your stack with? AA, KK, QQ, 67o? Theres just no discernible reason to guess here. just fold pre flop.

[jcm4ccc]

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The reason you utilize a stop and go is because you think you have the best hand pre-flop but do not have enough folding equity

[/ QUOTE ] You definitely don't need the best hand or even a good hand to use a stop-and-go. Sometimes you feel compelled to call with a marginal hand because you are short-stacked in the BB and you feel like you need to take a stand. if the situation is favorable for a stop-and-go, then you do it.

In fact, if you think you have the best hand, why not just push and try to double up? Seems to me that if you feel like you have the best hand or a coin-flip, that you wouldn't want to use a stop-and-go. if you are contemplating the stop-and-go, you are probably desperate anyway and will need to double up sometime.

Good mother of God. Seeing that hand was like seeing my grandmother naked.

[Rooger]

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Good mother of God. Seeing that hand was like seeing my grandmother naked.

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I could use more constructive critique than that. Please tell me why it's such a bad move - at the time I though it was good. I thought I had a good chance to push him of the flop.

[jcm4ccc]

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[ QUOTE ]
Good mother of God. Seeing that hand was like seeing my grandmother naked.

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I could use more constructive critique than that. Please tell me why it's such a bad move - at the time I though it was good. I thought I had a good chance to push him of the flop.

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Here is why this is one of the worst plays in poker you can possibly make. You are giving your opponent more information (3 free cards!) in which to make a correct decision.

There are only two situations that I can think of where you want to do this:
1. You have the nuts, and you want your opponent to make second best hand (basically slowplaying the flop and turn).
2. You are committed to playing the hand for all your chips, you have no preflop fold equity, you are up against one opponent, you are first to act on the flop, and you think you probably have the worst hand preflop (a traditional stop and go).

The critical element that you are missing is that you do have preflop fold equity (villian min-raised, so he could be on a steal). The second element missing is that you should not be committed to playing this hand for all your chips.

Basically, what you have going for this hand are the most superficial aspects of the stop-and-go: you are first to act on the flop, and you have one opponent. The most critical elements of the stop and go are missing. Just because you can do a stop and go doesn't mean you should.