Quick question on this 5/5 hand... - Page 2

Deftoner · #11 02-10-2005, 02:17 AM

Its a pretty easy call. Anyone with a set, two pair, or even an overpair could very likely raise behind you. This is a perfect time to slowplay and let the action develop around you, no need to get fancy and raise with the nuts on the flop.

WorldBeater · #12 02-10-2005, 03:08 AM

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can you explain why?

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Yes. Because if there is another big hand already out, you might get unlimited action from that hand by raising now. By only calling the flop bet, a scare card could hit or a card that beats your hand could hit on the next street.

There's a good chance that the next card could be a scare card for your hand or the opponents hand. You might get lucky, and someone might do the work for you by raising the pot. But then again that might not happen, and you will be left with the scenario below:
Your hand is vulnerable on the next card to be beaten or lose its flush value if:
A. the board pairs
B. another card of your suit hits (with only one card needed to complete the flush, your not nearly as likely to get action on your flush)

A quick estimate of how many times the board will pair, or another of your suit will hit on the turn, on average:
I look back at the original post and notice that the exact cards that flopped are not given. I will make a hypothetical flop to Ad 5d:

Flop: 7D 9D 3D.
There are 8 diamonds that could hit on the turn.
3 sevens, 3 nines, and 3 threes.
That's a total of 17 cards on the turn that will either pair the board or put out a four flush.
17 out of the 47 unseen cards in the deck = about 36% of the time.

Scenario 1 - It's possible another guy is in there slow playing the six high flush. What happens if a diamond hits on the turn? You are not likely to make much off your flush, is what will happen.

Scenario 2 - Here's an even worse scenario. The guy who led at the pot in this hand has a set, or 2 pair. The board pairs on the turn, giving him a full house. You have some serious guessing to do if you are faced with some big bets, depending on who is doing the betting.

Scenario 3 - You call the original flop bet. It is raised behind you and there are several callers, or just one caller. Then you make a big reraise. The question I have is the value of your smooth call in this situation. You could have raised the original bettor, and then been reraised by another in the hand, had you initiated the raising yourself. It's possible someone will do the work for you and bet your hand. If you are in a pot with habitual bluffers, then slow playing the hand may be a legitimate alternative.

I don't generally think its good poker to slow play monster hands that are vulnerable to scarecards / and being beaten by bigger hands. I have outlined several reasons why I think that is true.

etizzle · #13 02-10-2005, 03:43 AM

thats all fine and dandy, but this is a call and its not close.

Position relative to the bettor, and the fact that its very unlikely that anyone has 2 pair (only a set has outs) make this into a slowplay.

More than 50% of the time everyone is drawing dead here.

Usagi_yo · #14 02-10-2005, 03:51 AM

Call, because raising will disuade the action behind you. Give everybody the opportunity to put as much money in the pot as they want.

Catch a 4th of the suite on the turn will be sad and kill the action, take the pot there if it happens anyway.

Comes a blank, make sure more money goes in the pot -- not weak either, perhaps 2/3 to 1 1/4 of the pot. Don't do something silly like betting or calling 1/4 of the pot size bet.

Board pairs, I'm probably going to bet a pot sized bet -- going to be tough to want to call a big bet in front or big raise from behind. I think I like a bet in front rather then a raise from behind -- figuring a full house is going to check raise .. but a raise from behind can be a guy trying to get to the river as cheap as possible with 3 of a kind -- hoping to fill.

My bet on the turn may be such that pot size + my remainder chips will be just shy of paying off somebody drawing to full house -- if it can be reasonably done.

WorldBeater · #15 02-10-2005, 04:06 AM

"thats all fine and dandy, but this is a call and its not close. "

Dandy and Fine!

mgsimpleton · #16 02-10-2005, 04:39 AM

what are the cards that are out there? i think that has something (a lot!) to do with it as well...

WorldBeater · #17 02-10-2005, 05:19 AM

"thats all fine and dandy, but this is a call and its not close. "

Interesting philosophy.

"Position relative to the bettor, and the fact that its very unlikely that anyone has 2 pair (only a set has outs) make this into a slowplay."

Why is it a fact that no one is likely to have 2 pair (or a set)?

"More than 50% of the time everyone is drawing dead here. "

Is that an actual calculation, and if so, could you provide the detail as to how you calculated it? What about the other 50% of the time?

Thanks

WorldBeater · #18 02-10-2005, 06:07 AM

I answered the question first based on what I would do, but as I read the replies on the post I see that many of the experts are offering different advice.

Some questions about your post:
1. How would you play a smaller flush in this hand (Kx or 7x high flush)?
2. How would you play it if the pot were heads up?
3. If you were in a tougher game and the betting sequence / position were the same, would you still advocate a smooth call on the flop?
Thanks

coltrane · #19 02-10-2005, 01:56 PM

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what are the cards that are out there? i think that has something (a lot!) to do with it as well...

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7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

coltrane · #20 02-11-2005, 10:06 PM

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Fast-playing big hands is a great tactic at this limit, since many automatically slowplay a set or better, and assume everyone else does, too

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this is what I generally think as well.....I almost always raise with the nuts on the flop, etc.....I rarely slowplay anything.....in this hand though, the things that really sucked were: who was doing the betting, his position relative to me, who was left to act behind me.....though I really wanted to raise, I felt like calling was the best option given those three criteria......I felt like villain was too good to go broke on the flop for deep money, and I didn't want to blow out the bad players behind me (and yes Cero, it would've been a dream situation if someone behind me raised)......

so I flat-called and a bad player on the button overcalled......the turn paired the 3 (damn!).....SB checked, I bet $75, bad player called, SB checkraised $100 more.....now I was in a quandry but because of my image, my read on him, and what I know of his tendencies I just didn't put him on a full house.....so I called the $100, bad player folded.....river paired the 7!.....SB checked, I checked - he showed me a Q-high flush and I took down the pot in disgust.....

without being results-oriented, I'm still not convinced one way or another if I made the wrong move on the flop....I think it's one of those things where most of the time I would raise, but this particular situation I felt like a call was better.....backfired, but oh well......