#1
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Variance formula
Can someone give me a variance forumla that I can copy into an excel spreadsheet, ie chance of experiencing a certain run or worse over X hands?
I did do a search, most of it seemed to be directed to chance of being a winning player etc. I read one of the mod's posts that goes into this, but I think I got a part wrong. Anyway this is what I'm doing, where am I going wrong?? =(R-(H/100*WR))/(SD*SQRT(100)) is to get the fraction to put into =NORMSDIST(X/Y) which should give the odds of running that bad or worse. H = total hands. WR = expected BB/100 SD = SD/100 R - +/- BB (ie the run) Eg 1000 hands 2bb/100 15 SD/100 -50 bb run =(-50-(1000/100*2))/(15*SQRT(100)) Which gives a fraction of -7/15, put it in: =NORMSDIST(-7/15) Which gives 32% chance of a 2bb player being -50bb or worse after a 1000 hand sample (lol). I couldn't find a formula in the search so put that together based on what of the mods wrote. It'd be nice if something corrected it for me or gave me an actual forumla I could use. |
#2
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Re: Variance formula
[ QUOTE ]
Eg 1000 hands 2bb/100 15 SD/100 -50 bb run =(-50-(1000/100*2))/(15*SQRT(100)) [/ QUOTE ] Should be: =(-50-(1000/100*2))/(15*SQRT(1000/100)) =~ -1.476 =NORMSDIST(-1.476) =~ 7.0% |
#3
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Re: Variance formula
Thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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