To you math and pot odds Junkies

[arod15]

Here's an interesting question. 4 players left in a 50+5 SNG tourney. You have 5600 in chips with blinds 300-600. You are in the BB (now you have 5000K) with 8 3 off suite. UTG goes all in for 1200 Button folds and SB folds. There is now 2100 in the pot (600BB+300SB+1200allin) and it costs you 600 to call so you are getting 3-1 to call with a dominante chip stack. Now this is in my estimation an easy call as you are probably a 2-1 dog with two live cards. My question is Given the same situation if you had 2600 (2000 with the blind) in chips and now calling is risking a 1/3 of your stack is it still the right move? what if you had 1600 (now 1000 less the blind) its risking half of your stack? Just a question i pose. While im not a math junky i pose that in the first situation it is an easy yes in the second it is a marginal but leaning toward yes in the latter it is now given you are not in the money and lossing bascially kills your EV for the tourney. Love to hear a math junkies take on this.

[durron597]

Lets say you are 35% against UTG's range of hands, and that Button and SB have equal stacks of the remaining chips.

1600 chips to start:
EV fold = .1544
EV call & lose = .07
EV call & win = .3387

.3387 * .35 + .07 * .65 = .1185 + .0455 = .164

Thus it's higher EV to call than to fold - but only marginally. But realize that we have to take the small blind next hand which means we are definitely commited if we call and lose but we are probably committed anyway if we fold. So I would call.

Don't steal mah blind, bitch!

[gasgod]

Here is a tool to help with these calculations.

GG

[zambonidrivr]

i would rather push any 2, than call an utg push with that trash.

[slavic]

In this case it doesn't matter. In a live tourney with the conditions given I wouldn't even look before calling.

[slavic]

[ QUOTE ]
In this case it doesn't matter. In a live tourney with the conditions given I wouldn't even look before calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

One slight qualification though, and it likely applies here since this is a S&G. Since this is likely a bubble situation folding may have much higher EV than folding. Extending the bubble may allow you to increase your chips. If however two of the stacks are really short, I'm not that interested in extending the bubble.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
If however two of the stacks are really short, I'm not that interested in extending the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have less than 3 BB, I'm not interested in extending the bubble.