PFR% -- hand ranges and reraising standards against them

maurile · #1 01-31-2005, 08:45 PM

When somebody raises, I always look at his pre-flop raise percentage using Pokertracker (with Gametime+) to help decide how to respond.

To do this, it helps to associate a particular player's PFR% with the particular range of hands he'll raise with.

For example, if somebody has a PFR% of 0.45%, he's presumably raising only with AA and nothing else. (1/221 = 0.45%). In that case, it'd be correct to fold KK to his raise. So what range of hands is someone raising with if his PFR% is 4%? Or 6%? Or 12%? And what minimum hand must I have to reraise against each of those ranges of hands?

I'll try to answer that here. I've started with AA and added the next most likely raising hands to create the following ranges (each of which is associated with the percentage of all possible hands it makes up). Then I used PokerStove to find the minimum holdings that are favorites over those ranges of hands. Life is more complicated than any chart can ever capture, but as a rough first approximation, it's generally correct to reraise as a favorite and to fold otherwise. (There are times to correctly cold-call, especially after other cold-callers, but I'm ignoring that here.)

0.90% -- AA and KK only. Reraise with AA only.

1.55% -- AA-QQ, AKs. Reraise with AA or KK only.

2.56% -- AA-QQ, AK. Reraise with AA or KK only.

3.32% -- AA-JJ, AK, AQs. Reraise with AA or KK only. (QQ is borderline.)

4.22% -- AA-JJ, AK-AQ. Reraise with AA-QQ, AKs.

4.98% -- AA-TT, AK-AQ, AJs. Reraise with AA-QQ, AKs.

6.18% -- AA-TT, AK-AQ, AJs, KQ. Reraise with AA-QQ, AK. (JJ is borderline.)

7.39% -- AA-TT, AK-AJ, ATs, KQ. Reraise with AA-JJ, AK, AQs.

8.14% -- AA-99, AK-AJ, ATs, KQ, KJs. Reraise with AA-JJ, AK, AQs.

8.90% -- AA-88, AK-AJ, ATs-A9s, KQ, KJs. Reraise with AA-TT, AK, AQs.

9.50% -- AA-88, AK-AJ, ATs-A9s, KQ, KJs-KTs, QJs. Reraise with AA-TT, AK-AQ.

10.56% -- AA-77, AK-AJ, ATs-A9s, KQ, KJs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs. Reraise with AA-TT, AK-AQ.

12.97% -- AA-77, AK-AT, ATs-A8s, KQ-KJ, KTs-K9s, QJs-QTs, JTs. Reraise with AA-99, AK-AQ, AJs.

15.23% -- AA-66, AK-AT, ATs-A5s, KQ-KJ, KTs-K9s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, T9s. Reraise with AA-99, AK-AJ.

dealer_toe · #2 01-31-2005, 09:50 PM

I think I saw this type of thing on here somewhere, maybe in Bison's "Some notes on notes" post. I like it, except the 3 bet standards. I can think of a lot of players that raise about 7% but only 3 bet AA-KK-AK.

maurile · #3 01-31-2005, 11:25 PM

Yes, I wasn't trying to infer what other people's 3-betting standards are based on their PFR%. I was giving my reraising standards based on the raiser's PFR%.

For example, if a PFR=4.5% player raises from early position and I'm next to act, I will reraise only with AA, KK, QQ, or AKs.

But if a PFR=8% player raises from early position and I'm next to act, I will also reraise with JJ, AKo, and AQs.

college_boy · #4 02-01-2005, 04:43 AM

In your opinion how many hands do you have to see from an opponent for this strategy to be implemented?

jtr · #5 02-01-2005, 06:49 AM

Thanks for the work, interesting post.

DBowling · #6 02-01-2005, 08:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
In your opinion how many hands do you have to see from an opponent for this strategy to be implemented?

[/ QUOTE ]
I was gonna mention this. Sample size is important. I had a guy with 0% pfr after 80 some hands. By 200 hands i discover this guy's a maniac.
I do have a guy that after 2000+ hands has 0.2% pfr!!! I think that means he only raises AA from MP or LP or maybe from LP and the blinds. [censored] insane.

OP: excellent post/chart

theRealMacoy · #7 02-03-2005, 10:15 AM

thanks for the excellent post

very interesting idea to put people on hands
i will keep this in mind

cheers
the Real Macoy

Brainwalter · #8 02-03-2005, 02:30 PM

Isn't it McCoy?

ddubois · #9 02-25-2005, 07:47 PM

Great minds think alike! Your post is in a more usable form than mine, for sure. However, some of the comments made in my thread apply to yours (position).