O8 Tourney--risk it with high only hand?

[Glenn]

Late in an limit O8 tourney. 20 left, 9 pay. My table is 6 handed. Average stack is about 6000. Blinds are 200-400. I have a short stack of about 2000 and post the small blind. I am dealt As Qs Ad Jh. UTG raises, it is folded to me. Reraise or fold?

[Bozeman]

Call or fold, don't reraise cause you won't get him out.

[Glenn]

I prefer raising to calling because calling invites the BB to call, and I want to play this hand heads up with some dead money in the pot. If I only call, I will be pretty committed anyways, but most flops will look scary to me. However, the odds say the I will very often be good so I don't know how often I can get away from the hand. I can call and then bet out on any flop, but realistically he will call/raise with any piece of the flop so I don't think that gets me much. When I reraise preflop and bet out, he may fold anyways. He may fold less often, but I don't think there will be much difference because when he completely misses, he misses. Also, the pot is bigger to compensate for less folds.

Anyhow, that is my rationale for not considering calling. I am asking this question because I didn't know what to do, so don't take this as dismissing your suggestion. I am curious, however, what your plan on the flop is if you only call, especially if the BB comes along.

Thanks

[Gladiator]

The big advantage of a hand like yours is that you may scoop the pot, however a low will hit about 50% of the time i think(may be a little off).

So, that justifices a call to see if 2high or more flops then you should have somewhat of a hand aswel and a good chance to scoop if you win.

I have found that BB will call a raise in 90% of the cases in limit O8. I hardly ever raise to wint he pot right there.

- All thoughts welcome.

[Glenn]

Hi,

Just to clarify, UTG already raised, I would be 3-betting from the SB, and the BB would likely fold. I agree that the BB will very often call 1 bet which is why I like 3-betting over calling. I realize that UTG will not fold for 1 more bet and am reraising to isolate not to get him to fold.

Regards

[Gladiator]

In that case, fold.
You are done with the blinds for now and calling is too expensive, and so is raising.

Most people raise with somewhat of a hand mostly low cards, (not to steal the blinds as in HE)

Wait for a better spot

[Greg (FossilMan)]

What? Fold AAxy preflop? Sorry, but that is terrible advice. This isn't a super-satellite where he's on the bubble to win a seat. This is a percentage payback tourney, I believe, and he is almost certainly the favorite hand right now. Why would he fold?

Although A234 and such are great hands, AAxy is still the favorite preflop. And he doesn't have a garbagey AA hand, but a premium AA hand for high.

3-betting to fold the BB is almost certainly correct. Plus, you might as well get the money in now while you know you're the favorite. If you had reason to believe the BB was folding anyway (not that uncommon a tell), then just calling might be better. Not because you're going to ever fold postflop, but because by keeping the pot smaller, you can get the other guy to fold when two high cards flop (assuming he has primarily a low hand).

This is an all-in hand. There is pretty much no way you can ever fold here before the showdown, unless the board is super-scary AND the opponent is such a total rock he would never bet without being way ahead of AA (i.e., he must have a set or better, not even two pair, before he would bet or raise).

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[fnurt]

I agree with Greg 100%. Remember, even if a low is 50% likely to hit the board (I forget the exact number), that doesn't mean the opponent is going to MAKE a low.

You're a solid favorite for high over virtually anything, and a solid favorite for the entire pot if your opponent fails to make a low. The only hand that really crushes you is AA with low cards, and I hope no one is afraid of THAT here.

If you fold this, good luck getting a better opportunity to double your short stack.

[DJA]

I am going to go out on a limb here and say raise/fold... but it depends on the typical play of the UTG player. The problem with raising is often you are only a coin flip with the UTG player. If you don't mind a coin flip in this situation, then I would raise. If you are trying to avoid it I would say fold. I personally would raise, you are short stacked and need to get lucky. The nice thing about your hand is there are very few hands that are better then even money against your hand.

Here is a TWO DIMES simulation that shows a piece of crap 3 card low hand vs. your hand.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=59280
pokenum -mc 500000 -o8 as qs ad jh - 2d 3d 7d ks
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards
As Qs Ad Jh 0.517
Ks 7d 3d 2d 0.483

Pretty much even money...

So I would say either raising or folding is the right decision.

Just My Thoughts,

[Glenn]

Thanks Greg, fnurt, and DJA. Greg's post pretty much summed up what I was thinking at the time.