How much respect do I give this guy?

FoxwoodsFiend · #1 03-19-2005, 04:44 PM

5/10 live game at the casino morongo.
UTG is a supertight old player who has only pushed in twice, once with a set on the turn and the other time with a nut flush. I've seen him play K10 suited for a decent pot, but only with position and he doesn't even raise with QQ in MP preflop. Button is just a complete idiot-he's called my reraise for $200 preflop with A5 suited and puts in a small raise on the button every hand.
UTG has $1000, Button has $4000, I have $3300.
I'm dealt K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the big blind. UTG limps. Folded to the button who makes it 25. I call, UTG calls.
Flop comes down K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
I check, UTG bets 35, Button calls. I raise to $135. UTG and button call.
Turn comes K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I bet out for $120, two callers.
River comes 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
At this point, I'm worried about what UTG could have so I check. I check, he immediately moves all-in for $720. Button folds. Do I call or fold in this spot?

flawless_victory · #2 03-19-2005, 04:56 PM

i would fold here. fast. but i surely would not have CRed this flop...

aggie · #3 03-19-2005, 05:02 PM

you're getting over 2-1 on your money....He could have k-j, k-10, or some other hand...I think you need to call

KaneKungFu123 · #4 03-19-2005, 05:04 PM

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you're getting over 2-1 on your money....He could have k-j, k-10, or some other hand...I think you need to call

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this is a fold and its not close.

aggie · #5 03-19-2005, 05:09 PM

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this is a fold and its not close.

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care to elaborate?....I think you are wrong...It's definitely close...

Komodo · #6 03-19-2005, 05:18 PM

What have you put him on? a full house or AK?
Could you elaborate a little on this "Its not even close"?

Mad Genius1 · #7 03-19-2005, 05:30 PM

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this is a fold and its not close.

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It's definately close. UTG would have raised at some point with 44 or 99. Obviously he doesn't have 88 or K4/K9/K8. The only hand hero really has to worry about is AK. AK is probably the most likely hand but KQ, KJ and KT aren't out of the question as someone else pointed out. I do get a sense that UTG isn't sure about his hand until the river, where hero shows a lot of weakness.

I would probably still fold but this is definately not clear-cut.

flawless_victory · #8 03-19-2005, 05:35 PM

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UTG would have raised at some point with 44 or 99.

[/ QUOTE ]SAYS WHO? i think he has one of these hands the majority of the time.

soah · #9 03-19-2005, 05:53 PM

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It's definately close. UTG would have raised at some point with 44 or 99. Obviously he doesn't have 88 or K4/K9/K8. The only hand hero really has to worry about is AK. AK is probably the most likely hand but KQ, KJ and KT aren't out of the question as someone else pointed out. I do get a sense that UTG isn't sure about his hand until the river, where hero shows a lot of weakness.

I would probably still fold but this is definately not clear-cut.

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You are making an awful lot of assumptions which are not based on any of the information provided. Who says UTG would have raised at some point with a set? It's very plausible that he was planning to let Hero bet out on the turn to pot commit himself, and then he could push to drive out the button (who may be chasing a flush). But when he fills up he decides to let the button overcall drawing dead instead. Why do you think that KQ/KJ/KT are all likely hands for him? We were told that this guy seems to be aware of positional considerations, and that he is "supertight." How many "supertight" players limp UTG with KT? Would he call a checkraise from a solid player with top pair and a trash kicker? Would he push the river with such a hand after Hero has already represented strong hand as well? If he is that confident that he has Hero beaten, and does not have a full house, then why wouldn't he raise the turn to avoid letting the button draw at a flush cheaply?

Mad Genius1 · #10 03-19-2005, 06:03 PM

You are right. I made a mental error forgetting that a set would have filled up on the turn. My thinking was that on the turn, with a set UTG would almost be forced to raise given that button is most likely on the flush draw. But that's not the case.

There is still a possibility that he has KT/KJ though. How do I know that? Because hero says that UTG previously played a big pot with KT. I do agree that it would be unlikely that a tight player called a flop raise with just TPNK but I can see him having KT or KJ of diamonds. Not likely, which is why I said I would fold as well, but a small chance nevertheless.