What does Ciaffone mean by overlay?

[Jay36489]

He seems to use it to mean advantage or to be favored, but I'm not sure if I'm missing something here.

Examples:
RE: Tourney section
"One fact about hold'em that is of critical importance for the late stages of satelite play is that it is hard to get a large overlay before the flop. Pair over Pair and suchlike is rare."

RE: Shorthanded
"The most important factor is who the other people that are in the game. If they are inferior players, you have a bigger overlay then in a full game."

Does it just mean your advantage or a situation that is positive EV?

[mason55]

Yes basically it's a situation that is +EV. For example (in limit) if there's 10BB in the pot after the turn and you're drawing to a flush, you call your lone opponents bet. The odds of hitting are 4:1 and the odds the the pot is offering is 11:1. In this case you're getting an overlay of 8 bets, a very favorable situation. The idea is that you never want exact pot odds because then you're always in EV neutral situations, which means no profit. You can play EV neutral pots for table image, but what you really want is pots with an overlay, thus a +EV situation for you.

Another use of the term is in $ guaranteed tournaments. Say a site offers a $100 guarantee prize pool on a $1+0 buyin. If 100 people enter, your share of the prize pool is 1%, exactly what you contributed. If only 50 people enter, you have a 2% share of the prize pool but only contributed 1%, thus you have a 1% overlay. Another very favorable situation. Assuming everyone in the tournament is of equal skill, this would be the only way to make money at MTTs in the long run.

[MonkeeMan]

Good post except for:
[ QUOTE ]
you're drawing to a flush, you call your lone opponents bet. The odds of hitting are 3:1

[/ QUOTE ]

[mason55]

Huh? 25%... you miss 3 times and you hit 1 time. 4-1 = 3:1 = 25%

[MonkeeMan]

There are 47 random cards and 5 known cards, of which 4 are of your flush suit. That leaves 9 of 47 to hit the flush with, or 38:9 or 4.2:1 or ~4:1.

[mason55]

ahaha yeah derrr sorry i confused myself [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] i have a tendency to do that

[Jay36489]

Thank you. Very well put response. They are right on the 4:1 though [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[jhall23]

Your math to determine odd's is good. 9 outs with 47 unknown cards is indeed 4.22 to 1 but on the turn there are only 46 unknown cards. So its 37/9 = 4.11.. to 1.

But I'm just nitpicking.

[mason55]

yes yes... need to stop multitabling while i post, it breaks my brain

[MonkeeMan]

Oops, missed the turn part. But in both cases it's ~4:1.