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#1
10-03-2005, 05:10 AM
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ITM, there\'s a tiny stack, #2 stack pushes, SNGPT says call with A4o
Blinds 300/600
BB has 1120 before posting Hero is SB with 3750, A4o Button has 3130 Button raises to 1900 here, but it's effectively a push since he'll certainly call an all-in. If we say it's an all-in, SNGPT makes this a pretty easy call if the guy's pushing 13% or more of his hands, which is safe to say is true so far in this tourney. But the small stack has less than 1 BB after posting, so how could calling possibly be good with this weak of a holding? 
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#2
10-03-2005, 05:17 AM
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Re: ITM, there\'s a tiny stack, #2 stack pushes, SNGPT says call with A4o
Because there's a bunch of dead money, you are ahead of the guy's range, you have him covered and the ITM payout structure is much steeper than the bubble payout structure. Remember once you are ITM you are guaranteed 20% of the prize pool, so effectively you are playing 30%/10%/0%.
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#3
10-03-2005, 05:33 AM
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Re: ITM, there\'s a tiny stack, #2 stack pushes, SNGPT says call with A4o
Prizes 50-30-20
A4 = 50% chance winning. Result win 20 or lose 10 from your current "safe" 30 Of course there are a bazillion other factors, and this is the most approximate post since "Dewey defeats Truman" but still, you get the idea. Edit: FWIW I often fold here... just so I'm not trying to mislead anyone. Lori
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#4
10-04-2005, 04:28 AM
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Re: ITM, there\'s a tiny stack, #2 stack pushes, SNGPT says call with A
[ QUOTE ]
Blinds 300/600 BB has 1120 before posting Hero is SB with 3750, A4o Button has 3130 Button raises to 1900 here, but it's effectively a push since he'll certainly call an all-in. If we say it's an all-in, SNGPT makes this a pretty easy call if the guy's pushing 13% or more of his hands, which is safe to say is true so far in this tourney. But the small stack has less than 1 BB after posting, so how could calling possibly be good with this weak of a holding? [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure what to explain, really. Give yourself a coin flip there and then look at the details: your equity now, your equity if you lose, your equity if you win. Are any of those numbers surprising to you? If not, why is the result? eastbay
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#5
10-04-2005, 04:36 AM
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Re: ITM, there\'s a tiny stack, #2 stack pushes, SNGPT says call with A
I'm glad you made this post. I probably fold in that spot more often than I should, and I never thought to check the numbers.
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#6
10-04-2005, 04:41 AM
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Re: ITM, there\'s a tiny stack, #2 stack pushes, SNGPT says call with A
[ QUOTE ]
I'm glad you made this post. I probably fold in that spot more often than I should, and I never thought to check the numbers. [/ QUOTE ] It's worth a discussion. I wouldn't carve it in stone as the correct result, but it doesn't shock me or anything. However, there's a few details that warrant examination for the motivated: Does BB's likely call affect your fold equity much over the assumption he folds (which is what SNGPT does assume). Does discounting small stack for the SB in the next hand change things much? Those are the two Q's which come to mind. eastbay
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#7
10-04-2005, 05:00 AM
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Re: ITM, there\'s a tiny stack, #2 stack pushes, SNGPT says call with A
I want to know why button would make this move? He should know he probally doesn't have much FE vs BB, so does he only make this move with decent hands? Or does he make this move with a better than average hand hoping to get the advantage for HU thinking he has big FE vs you here?
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#8
10-04-2005, 05:04 AM
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Re: ITM, there\'s a tiny stack, #2 stack pushes, SNGPT says call with A4o
its really neat to consider the fact of calling.. the bb may in fact fold, and you can shove any flop and maybe get button to fold. this IS an 11, 22, or 33. (not sure which.) holla
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#9
10-04-2005, 06:22 AM
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Re: ITM, there\'s a tiny stack, #2 stack pushes, SNGPT says call with A4o
what % of the time do you win this pot without showdown at any sng level. It would take quite a rabbit-outofthehat type effort to do that and I almost think its impossible.
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#10
10-04-2005, 06:55 AM
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Re: ITM, there\'s a tiny stack, #2 stack pushes, SNGPT says call with A
A call if he's only pushing 13%?
I think you need to expect to win around 50% of showdowns, but A4o is <40% against that range. You need him to be pushing way more hands (maybe 45%) to get the right odds. I'm only looking at the case when the BB folds and you end up all-in with the raiser here, which is what OP said. The actual situation is a bit more complex here. Psparky
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