Overbet bluff, NL$400

[wtfsvi]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Villain is 28/5/1.3. Seems straightforward and decent, and when he checks behind on the turn I'm pretty confident that means he wants to play a small pot. I haven't been at the table very long, but villain has probably picked up on me being very loose (40/30 or so during the hands I've had at the table.) So he probably thinks I suck.

Just plain stupid? :

Hero ($407.70)
BB ($83.20)
UTG ($550.04)
MP ($353.60)
CO :#A500AF(villain)/ ($713.62)
Button ($367.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO :#A500AF(villain)/ raises to $15</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero (poster) calls $13, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($34) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">villain raises to $50</font>, Hero calls $25.

Turn: ($134) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, villain checks.

River: ($134) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $342.7 (all-in)</font>

[gol4pro]

Why not just pot it? If you bet 130, this has to work slightly better than 50% of the time. By betting 340, this has to work at least 75%.

Honestly, I don't see any hands folding to the overbet that call a PSB.

[kongo_totte]

I actually like the bet more than a PSB. A 40/30 player(I imagine your post-flop-agg is ridicoulus aswell) will bet that river almost w/ any 2 after that action, and I for one would be very loose with my calling standards. But the over bet is very scary and alot of players freeze up when faced with it, atleast decent ones. I think villian will fold way above 50% of the time here, however I don't he'll fold as often as he needs to.

I c/f river.

Also, I'd wait for this spot until I have a hand that has absolutely no chance of winning a show down. If the river is checked through, your 8 might very well be best. So checking is +EV. Which means your bluff does not only have to be +EV, but more +EV than checking is for it to be correct.

[Lucky]

Not a bad play, prob bet less on river as others have said.

Also, something to think about. If you're a 40/30 player, you're much more likely to get called here than a straightforward player. You're going to maximize you're image by spalshing around a lot, but jammin it when you HAVE the goods.

[wtfsvi]

[ QUOTE ]
maximize you're image by spalshing around a lot, but jammin it when you HAVE the goods.

[/ QUOTE ] That's at least what I spent the rest of the evening doing after he saw that I overbet pushed a pair of eights on that board. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ahnuld]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
maximize you're image by spalshing around a lot, but jammin it when you HAVE the goods.

[/ QUOTE ] That's at least what I spent the rest of the evening doing after he saw that I overbet pushed a pair of eights on that board. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

For this reason, I like the push better than potting it. Not bad hand at all. If i were him, maybe I woulda folded a flush, which im guessing he called you with.

[ginko]

Well imagine from his point of view. Why would you bet into the PF raiser with trips? The most common play is a check call or check raise.

He raised you, you just called. A bad player isn't smart enough to betcall, checkraise turn.

Maybe you aren't as good of a player as you think. Calling a raise with 89s out of position against a solid player is probably not very good poker. I mean, you even admit his PFR is only 5% so his range is something like, JJ-AA, AK-AQ.

He has an overpair or maybe the nutflush draw, or hes an idiot and he thinks his AK is good.

[DoomSlice]

I don't like it AT ALL. I see Villain as having a strong 8 50% of the time, a flush 20% of the time, and something else the rest of the time... not the odds you need.

[wtfsvi]

5% pfr, and he has a strong 8 50% of the time? wtf. And why would he check behind on the turn with a flush? I think you need to do some serious thinking about how you read hands. It should be fairly obvious that overpairs are villains most likely holdings (including JJ of course). And missed overs. Or overs that hit the jack on the river.

[emil3000]

How do you feel about a bet of 250? Still looks scary, and you have to succeed a lot less.