PT & PV are just the beginning... of the end

johnfromvirginia · #1 02-10-2005, 02:33 PM

It strikes me that poker software like poker tracker and poker view may be extremely dangerous to online poker. Eventually, these things will evolve into software that just comes right out and tells you whether to fold, call or raise. The next evolution would just be a bunch of poker bots playing tight, aggressive poker without any emotion. When this happens, the online poker industry will die within months because no one can survive in that world for long, certainly not any of the sheep. If it were up to me, hand history would not be available to players. All this software designed to observe your opponents for you may eventually kill the goose that laid the golden egg.

Dynasty · #2 02-10-2005, 05:21 PM

What % of online players even own Poker Tracker? It can't be very high.

Daliman · #3 02-10-2005, 05:34 PM

Yes, just as the tons of readily available information on correct/good play in books and online has ruined all the games currently played.....

Dynasty · #4 02-10-2005, 05:48 PM

You really should get that middle picture into the avatar mix. It's important because your son starts to lean into the toy basket. It really helps the flow.

johnfromvirginia · #5 02-10-2005, 06:07 PM

Maybe you're right, but I'm not sure I explained exactly what I'm talking about. Poker Tracker still requires some effort and skill to apply--you still have to know how to play poker in order to use PT effectively. PV takes it to the next level and moves more of this info right onto the table--you still need quite a bit of skill to apply the information, but it's a set of skills that any dedicated person can learn. It's no longer limited to those who can observe what's going on around them, remember it all and apply it in the trenches like the seasoned pros of yore. If this were to evolve into "bots," which seems to me is only a matter of time. Then, you'd just turn on your computer and leave for work and when you got home, you'd walk up to the computer and see how much you'd benefited from a day of playing flawless, perfect poker while you were off doing something else. You put one or two bots at each table and the game becomes almost impossible to beat. It would be like sitting down at a table with the two very best pros you can imagine on their very best days and having them never make a technical error.

The only thing that might keep these things from spreading like wildfire is the possibility that they'd be more profitable to their creator if he/she were to use them himself rather than sell them. They could conceivably make more money using them on their own than they could make selling them.

Daliman · #6 02-10-2005, 06:39 PM

I wanted to, but the guy who did the avatar for me (ty SuitedSixes) said that since it had a different, brighter shading to it, it gave an odd flicker effect and just looked bad. I think there wasa cropping issue too. But yes, i wish i could have had it in there.

shummie · #7 02-10-2005, 06:44 PM

I get your point, and it's scary.

For an analogy. Suppose you were playing chess for a living (or like the posters here are playing poker). Now suppose that a deep-blue style (heck, even Chessmaster style) bot was available for you to use a la Poker Tracker. Now regular humans have no chance at making money playing chess online.

Poker is a bit more complicated to program good AI for and there haven't been that many smart guys looking into. However, the smart guys are looking into it now AND computing speeds are ramping up all the time due to Moor's law ect.

One thing that will make programming a good poker player harder than programming a good chess player is the possibility (and really the need) to "change gears" when playing. In chess, any dumbo who knows the rules knows what needs to be done to win the game. Capturing your opponents queen is just about always a good thing to do. In poker, raising your pair of queens on the river is highly situational dependent. I'm being really general here, but this is all a result of the fact that in chess you have perfect information while in poker you don't (i.e. you can't see your opponents cards).

Now, I don't mean to take the chess analogy too far. I'm just trying to say that at the time poker is a harder problem for game theorists and computer scientists to solve. However, no one has proven that poker is inately unsolvable by a computer... especially at lower limits.

If you use Poker Tracker and multi-table, a lot of time you will look at a players stats (40/0) and know EXACTLY what to do in your situation. Poker Tracker could just fold the AJo for you when said player raises preflop. If you've played 50k hands plus, you know that poker can become very repetative.

My best guess is that within 5 years there will be poker-playing PT type programs good enough to beat the fish like we are now. Within 10 years there will be poker-playing PT type programs that can beat US like we are beating the fish now. By this time, playing online will come down to who can write the best computer program.

shummie · #8 02-10-2005, 06:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing that might keep these things from spreading like wildfire is the possibility that they'd be more profitable to their creator if he/she were to use them himself rather than sell them. They could conceivably make more money using them on their own than they could make selling them.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes a bit of sense. The guys who are on the cutting edge of Poker AI right now are keeping a lot to themselves and making money by working on Danniel N. XBox Poker or creating Texas Hold'em slot machines. Computer Scientists though, for the most part, like to share. Think Open Source movement. AI specialists especially like to share. The problems involved with making a good poker playing AI are applicable to a wide range of AI studies. The findings of the people working on AI is going to leak into the academic community. The second generation of people who run into these papers and algorithms on poker are going to be able to make bots from them. And by this time, not everyone who is smart enough to do this will be from MIT or be profit-motivated enough to keep there work out of wide spread use.

So this is a stumbling block, but not a huge one.

- Jason

johnfromvirginia · #9 02-10-2005, 10:45 PM

Exactly. And well put. My fear is that it won't take 5 or 10 years. Instead, there may be a grad student at MIT working on it right now who could have a program on line within a year. It's not really a very big step from PT to a "bot" program. The only real protection against this is for the sites to stop releasing hand history.

DesertCat · #10 02-10-2005, 11:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The only real protection against this is for the sites to stop releasing hand history.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you greatly underestimate the difficulty of building a competent poker bot. But assume one can and will be built. Further assume it will decimate the ranks of poker players, making it online poker a -EV for all non bot participants. When the sites start losing players, do you still think they will aid their own destruction by continuing to provide access to hand histories?