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Old 12-07-2003, 03:37 PM
DrPhysic DrPhysic is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: San Antonio, Tx
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Default Card odds VS pot odds with small pairs

Somebody help, please. My math is OK, but my knowledge of statistics is probably no better than anyone else's. (Sklansky and other math buffs excepted.)

If I have a small pocket pair. 9's or smaller. The Poker Odds calculator at Cardplayer.com says my pair is a better 2 cards than about anything other than a bigger pair. 33 is 50.2% VS AKs 49.8% and 99 is a lot better. About 55/45.

My calculation says I'm going to flop trips 12% of the time. 2 remaining cards out of 50 is 1/25=.04 times 3 cards is 12%. I have to assume that with 2-4 players staying in for the flop, somebody probably has a Q, K, or A. Therefore if I see big overcards I'm going to fold unless I hit the trip.

The rub is that I can't ever justify the bet based on pot odds. If I'm in the small blind, everybody stays in for one bb bet, when it comes to me there are 8 bb's in the pot on a 9 seat table. My pot odds are 1 in 8, while the probablility of hitting the trips are 1 in 8 1/2. A lot worse if 2, 3, or 4 people are betting. The only time the pot odds could justify a bet are if everyone is in for one bet on a 10 seat table.

The logic leads to the idea of folding any pair smaller than JJ, or maybe TT because there just aren't enough outs.

Somebody educate me. It just seems that always folding any small pair is not right.

DrPhysic [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

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