Call River with AQo Unimproved?

[JaBlue]

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A lot of times you can only call on the river even when you think you have the best hand. Your logic is faulty. If you have the best hand but he will not pay you off, a raise ears you nothing - and if it turns out that you didn't actually have the best hand, it costs you.

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But here we don't have the best hand, and might raise as a bluff, not because we think we're value betting AQ UI. Right?

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I doubt a raise accomplishes much in this spot. What are you trying to represent? I can't imagine a pair not looking you up.

I just wanted to clear up the poster's misconception that "you have the best hand, so raise"

[Moozh]

Thanks for the replies. If it matters, I did win this hand. The villian showed 95[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and my hand was good.

Even with the results, I'm not particularly happy with how I played the hand. I think that if I wanted a showdown, I should have bet the turn. The truth was I didn't bet the turn because I was willing to let my hand go on the river. The small bet at the end was the only reason I called.

I was surprised at how many people said something to the effect of 'I think you're beat, fold'. Either there was some extra analysis that was taken for granted, or the response was not thought through properly. A few things I think worth at least considering here:

- You don't have to think you have the best hand here to call. You only have to think you'll win one out of every six times.

- I've noticed at 100nl that a lot of people who buy in short (and even people who don't), often give their hand away by their bet size. Just because in this case he bet small didn't automatically mean he had nothing, but I was surprised that wasn't even really discussed. If you think a small bet means either a bluff or a monster, I think that's an even larger argument for calling as I imagine a monster:bluff ratio would be much less than 5:1.

- No real hand ranges were thought of. I agree in this hand, the ranges are very wide. Still, no one even tried to put the guy on a hand range aside from 'he probably has a pair'. Sure, but how probable? What about possible hands that missed that I beat? He could play a middle ace like that, hoping to hit after the flop. He could play hands like 98, T8, or T9 that way. Perhaps he has a weak gutshot and backdoor flush. The board is full of rags. Would he call a raise with a hand that hit that board?

- Finally, what kind of hand does he put me on after I bet the flop and check behind? If he's a thinking player, can he bet the river for value against my hand range when a 2 comes (obviously not helping my hand)? What is the purpose of his river bet?

Again, in this hand we know the answer, but in other hands, you don't. I think it would be worth thinking about stuff like this more often. That said, I realize that every post can't go into a lot of detail and I'd prefer short responses to no responses. So, thanks for the replies.