Today's quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation

[rory]

Here is like my general sort of thinking which is sort of tuned from playing online and might be mistuned. I'm rusty.

I don't know anything about my opponent. I have two overcards and a gutshot. If I get check raised I hate folding because I have a draw to the nuts and I might be folding a hand with ten outs or possibly the best hand. If I check I can call a river bet without worrying too much because I just made a bluff inducing move by checking on the turn and I'm so aggressive on the button I can easily have no hand after my turn check. If I bet the turn, though, he might fold a pocket pair which would be great. He also might fold a hand like Q8 or something which has 10 outs to beat me too. But.. the pot is very small. So I don't mind much if I give a free card because the pot is so small and I might be getting a free card or dodging a check raise anyway. So I'll give him a free card that might be a free card for me in a nothing pot and call his possible bluff bet on the river because I think my hand is probably good >25% of the time. Hope I spike a Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].