Party $2/4 LO8 hand question

[Ironman]

I understand your thinking on all streets, but sometimes you have to fold in this game when you get a bad card...even when the pot is big. There are plenty of times to bluff...but this isn't one of them.

Your back-up plan is a draw to the non nut flush. If you already had a made flush in your hand...then I would like your turn action a lot more. But you've got nothing.

If my numbers are correct, you put $14 into the pot before the turn...then put another $16 into the pot after the turn trying to win back your original $14.

Cut your losses. Fold the turn.

Dave

You are correct, I had put $14 in after the flop betting was over, but there was $61 in the pot now. I see it as I'm trying to win $30 at this point, not my original $14 back. Running the numbers on pokerhand.org, my EV at this point is .181, with the AA33 at .667 and the 79TJ at .153.
I'm too new with these numbers to interpret them well, so am I justified in staying in this pot knowing these numbers? The calculations tell me that I win the high 33% of the time here.

[DOMIT]

[ QUOTE ]
You are correct, I had put $14 in after the flop betting was over, but there was $61 in the pot now. I see it as I'm trying to win $30 at this point, not my original $14 back. Running the numbers on pokerhand.org, my EV at this point is .181, with the AA33 at .667 and the 79TJ at .153.
I'm too new with these numbers to interpret them well, so am I justified in staying in this pot knowing these numbers? The calculations tell me that I win the high 33% of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, winning 33% is NOT what it's telling you... look at the two dimes result again and notice this line:
... <u>"528 enumerated boards containing"</u>

The 528 is the number of possible boards after the given flop with the given hands. If you look at the numbers under the columns, for example "LOtie", this is the number of hands, not a percentage.

Since from the flop the low is not already there, you'll see that the numbers under the "Hi" columns equal the 528, but not the low, since there are 'x' number of boards where the low will not get there.

Since you're sharing A2 with someone else, you'll never 'win' the low, but you'll tie the low 333-out-of-528 times. So 63% of the time, you'll get a quarter of the low. Only 18.6% of the time, will you win high. The quartering of the low and the low percentage on winning high is why the EV is only 27.8% for your hand.

While I know that you put a lot into the pot, with the jamming that went on at the flop, it certainly seemed like you could get out after the turn. Unless they're being complete donkeys (it is Party, and I've never played the 2/4 there), but with all the raising, someone has the nut flush draw with either A2 or A3 (maybe A23) and with all the calling, I'd think that someone else has A2. With all that out there, I (personally) do not see any more raising after the flop. You _don't_ want to lose anyone in the case you get quartered. {I don't know why, but there are some people that just will _not_ lay down the nut low, or the draw to the nut low, even when it seems obvious that someone else has the same hand.. look at the A299 hand.. only a 17% EV, cause that's all he has, and he should know that he's getting quartered.}