$22: playing the BB on the flop in 5-way pot with 83s

UTG 1285
UTG+1 690
UTG+2 765
CO+2 1385
CO+1 955
CO 665
BTN 220
SB 1305 (25)
hero 730 (50)

Dealt to hero 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls (50), one fold, UTG+2 (50), CO+2 calls (50), three folds, SB completes, hero checks.

Flop 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (five players, pot = 250)
two checks, UTG bets 100, three folds, hero ?

It seems to me that there is a reasonable chance that a pair of threes is the best hand. Agree? If so, what size raise do you think is needed to take the pot here?

It seems to me that UTG's min-bet is either a cheap attempt to take the pot, probably with two high cards, or an attempt to build a pot with a high pocket pair or set (with a mid pocket pair, he'd try to take the pot right here with a stronger bet). Either way, a smallish raise ought to give us the information we need: he'll either fold with overcards, or call (or re-raise) with an high pair or set. Does that seem right?

But, if we make it 300, we only have 380 left, so I suppose we might as well push. Does the fact that we're basically pot committed by even a small raise change your mind about competing for this pot? If you had started the hand with something like 1200 in chips would you be more willing?

I am interested in the raise sizes, so if your pair of threes isn't enough to be making a play, pretend you have pocket threes and have just made a set.

[tigerite]

Your reverse implied odds are horrendous here, and you have 2nd pair 8 kicker. You should never raise here, I could see half an argument for calling, but most of the time, just let it go, really.

[tigerite]

And having 83 on this flop is nothing at all like having a set of 3's so it's totally pointless to even discuss it.

Yes, I understand a set of threes is very different from middle pair. I suspected that the answer to my question might be something like: you're crazy for even considering getting involved. So, I tossed in the hypothetical pocket threes because it seemed that the action to this point would be reasonable and now the raise size question may come into play.

[jb9]

I think you should fold.

You don't have enough chips to check raise and still have chips left over to play with if he calls. And I wouldn't want to end up all in with this hand at this point in the tournament. Wait for a better opportunity.

If I wanted to play for this pot, I would have bet out on the flop (150) and folded to a raise and check/folded the turn or river unless I improved.

That's my usual line if I think I can pick up the pot after connecting with a ragged flop from the big blind. I take one shot at it, and then let it go. With your chip count here, I don't think I'd try for this pot.

P.S. If I have a set of threes, I call his bet and bet 3/4 of the pot on the turn and get all in on the river.