When do you start second-guessing?

Hoss1193 · #1 09-30-2005, 05:45 PM

Like many, I play both online and at B&Ms, for a number of reasons. Strictly from a mathematical standpoint, online is better, and I do enjoy playing the game as well. I keep B&M in the mix, however, because from an enjoyment/social aspect, I simply find it more fun. Poker is not income for me, at least not for any more than just casual pocket money.

While my online game is going well, I'm currently in a B&M downswing. I'm guessing (at about 35 hands/hour) I've played maybe 1800 hands this month, and lost 82BB, almost 5 BB/100.

I haven't been worried about it. I don't find the players tougher than my typical online game (party 1/2). I don't play differently at the cardroom compared to online, and have a lot of confidence in my game. Have always been a winning player, more so since studying SSHE. I know I'm not a great player, but I'm pretty confident that I'm usually one of the better players in the games I play. I've gotten pretty good about not letting the bad beats bother me (well, most of the time).

I'm chalking this up to variance and the simple fact that 1800 hands is not even close to a significant sample size. I haven't seen a compelling reason to overhaul my game, knowing that eventually I'll hit a bit of a run where these dolts aren't going to river me repeatedly.

The problem I have, however, is that the short-term negative fluctuation is somewhat affecting my simple enjoyment of the B&M game right now. And while I'm not yet to the point of questioning my game, I AM starting to second-guess the fact that I'm NOT worried yet. I do mentally replay the big hands I lose, and usually satisfy myself that I played soundly...but that's about it. After all, there's no PT for B&M.

So...is -80BB over ~1800 hands something I should be a bit more concerned about? Keeping variance and luck in mind, when do you guys start to think about doing a serious review and overhaul of your game? What techniques do you use for review/analysis of your live games, since you don't have the recordkeeping tools available for hand histories, etc, compared to online?

GrunchCan · #2 09-30-2005, 06:08 PM

I wish I could answer this question well, but I'm leaving for the day.

Be open to the possibility that your live game is broken. It was for me, and may still be. You can be real good online and suck live. Start looking at the differences between online & live.

I'm afraid that's all the time I have now.

#3 09-30-2005, 11:01 PM

As a relatively new player who plays mostly online and hits the casino when I get the chance, I hesitate to respond to your question because I know there are lots of other posters here who have lots more experience. However, I can't resist putting in my $.02...

I would expect that your B&M game would be a bit different from your online game - maybe not in the mechanics of the game, but in other ways. The casino table is different in that there are lots of distractions going on - not like sitting at the computer in your comfy den. For those of us who like to multi-table, playing only 25-35 hands an hour can make it even harder to give the game the appropriate concentration.

Like you said....1800 hands, although it is a lot of time at the tables, is a small sample. There's been several posts recently about downswings...we all have them and they're part of the game. For me, sometimes just stepping back for a couple of days and doing something other than playing poker helps my game when I come back.

Hoss1193 · #4 10-02-2005, 04:38 PM

bump. I know there's got to be some more insight out there in this august group.

Pov · #5 10-02-2005, 05:04 PM

82 BB is nothing to sneeze at, but it's not that big a deal in terms of variance. Your swings take longer in B&M play since you can't multi-table and the hand rate is lower so the swings hurt more psychologically - it can seem like you've been losing forever.

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...when do you guys start to think about doing a serious review and overhaul of your game?

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As frequently as I have time. You should always be working on your game. Not just when you're in a downswing. There is always room for improvement.

I notice you compare your online experience with your B&M experience a fair amount. In my experience they are very different animals and your game should be focused very differently. My B&M games are much looser and less aggressive. They require an entirely different overall strategy to beat optimally than what I would use in pretty much any online game, even $.50/$1. Unsuited cards are worth a lot less, even hands like AJo and little pairs and connectors are much better than in my online games. Pots are frequently very large on the turn - some of these bad beats may be much closer to correct play (after the flop) than you would think.

Much of your downswing could very well be variance, but even if it is I'm sure your game could use some work. I know mine could. So tell us about your B&M sessions. Are you playing $3/$6 I presume? What's the rake? How many people see the flop? What about if it is raised? Etc. etc.

Hoss1193 · #6 10-03-2005, 03:32 AM

It's a 3/6 game at the local room, with a "half kill" (5/10 for the kill flops). Pretty standard rake; 10% up to $3 max, with a $1 jackpot drop. The regulars vary...a smattering of older tight rocks who mainly play in the afternoon (some of whom are calling stations, others who seem to fold anything that isn't the nuts), some very LAGGY folks, and a lot of LPs. Depending on the specific player lineup, I'd say the game is tight-passive maybe 20% of the time, quite loose-aggressive 20-30% of the time, and loose-passive the rest. There are maybe 5 regular players who I think are quite good and I'm pretty careful if I'm in a pot with them.

I've noticed that there a couple of players who routinely limp and call down hands like big pairs and AKs even if they flop a set. Even though they're not maximizing their winnings and I wind up saving a couple a bets...I find it quite annoying when I flop top 2 pair with AK and wind up losing to the set from a player who never raised (or even bet out).

I'm pretty tight with starting standards; I generally play the SSHE "loose game" starting standards. I will say that I probably don't adjust to playing the "tight" recommendations enough when I'm sitting in with the rocks.

I'd say my raising standards are pretty much in line with SSHE as well. I'll raise and re-raise from pretty much any position with AA-99, AKs, AK, AQs, and KQs. I'll raise AQ, AJ, and KQ if the pot is unraised when it gets to me, but will only coldcall with AQ. I'll limp any PP in any position, and will even coldcall with any PP (this is following SSHE, I'm not totally comfortable with it, but it seems to be working out). I'll also limp suited connectors down to 98s, and as low as 56s on the button or cutoff. I'll limp with any suited A, and sometimes coldcall IF there's a lot of players in the pot. I almost never play Kxs, only rarely if there's a lot of players and the pot is unraised. I think all of this is fairly standard.

I tend to take a lot of stabs at the pot with MPGK, or 2 big overcards; sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. I do have a tendency to call for one bet if I flop both a BDFD and BDSD...I probably need to stop doing that-it's not something I do online.

When the game is LP, I often have a problem figuring out how to protect my hand...say I have AJd in early position and the flop comes Js-7s-2h. I've got TPTK on a fairly ragged board, but there's a flush draw possibility. I'd much rather be able to make it 2 bets to protect the pair, but when I try for the check-raise, it often just checks around. So I wind up just betting out, and folks are getting proper pot odds for the draw. This sort of thing happens a good bit.

I also have a tendency to bet out when I have a quality flush or straight draw, or sometimes even raise on the button in an attempt at a free card. Again, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. I suspect that I do that sort of thing often enough that the better players have noticed it - I don't often get reraised in that situation, but I often get bet into on the turn anyway if the 3rd suited card doesn't fall.

Oh, one note on the kill pots...I usually tighten up considerably, and don't play the more speculative hands. When I get into a kill pot, it's with a quality raising hand. I know I've let a couple of them get away this way, but overall my win percentage of kill pots is pretty good.

All in all, it's a game in which I've done quite well in the past...but it's been a drought the last month. I usually play there 2-3 times a week, and average about 4 hours a session.

SheridanCat · #7 10-03-2005, 11:28 AM

Your analysis of your own play is excellent. And you seem to have a good handle on your usual game.

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I find it quite annoying when I flop top 2 pair with AK and wind up losing to the set from a player who never raised (or even bet out).

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Would you rather lose the extra bets? Passive players like this are fantastic to play against. They're making the wrong play at every turn. I know these set vs. top-two situations sting and stick in your mind, but try to think about the bets they saved you and all the Sklansky bucks you've made. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I tend to take a lot of stabs at the pot with MPGK, or 2 big overcards; sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. I do have a tendency to call for one bet if I flop both a BDFD and BDSD...I probably need to stop doing that-it's not something I do online.

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Firing with middle pair is fine, in my opinion. Chasing the backdoor stuff, though, can be costly unless you are truly getting the pot odds to hang in there. If the game is loose and passive, you may be getting the odds. Live games are sometimes so loose that you will be right to chase, but you'll experience some painful swings.

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When the game is LP, I often have a problem figuring out how to protect my hand...say I have AJd in early position and the flop comes Js-7s-2h. I've got TPTK on a fairly ragged board, but there's a flush draw possibility. I'd much rather be able to make it 2 bets to protect the pair, but when I try for the check-raise, it often just checks around. So I wind up just betting out, and folks are getting proper pot odds for the draw. This sort of thing happens a good bit.

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If the players are that passive, then I think betting out more is the right thing to do. While they might be getting proper pot odds to call your bet, giving a free card is even more dangerous. Your bet may also shake a player or two out of the hand. This has two benefits. First, it may help deny pot odds to the drawing player and it may keep you from being beaten by some unlikely two pair or a better pair if an overcard comes.

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I also have a tendency to bet out when I have a quality flush or straight draw, or sometimes even raise on the button in an attempt at a free card. Again, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. I suspect that I do that sort of thing often enough that the better players have noticed it - I don't often get reraised in that situation, but I often get bet into on the turn anyway if the 3rd suited card doesn't fall.

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If you know you're being predictable, try changing it up. Perhaps go for a check-raise more often with your draws. Keep them guessing. Since this is a regular game with known players, you'll need to be careful not to fall into a rut. While you may be tracked by people online using Poker Tracker, they are going to be less familiar with your situational habits than a player you play with live regularly.

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Oh, one note on the kill pots...I usually tighten up considerably,

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Kill pots add an interesting wrinkle to games. I tend to tighten up also, but I know my opponents are playing looser than normal - at least in the kill games I'm familiar with. I suppose a really good player, who recognizes this tendency, would also tend to speculate a little more also, but I can't bring myself to do it against the gamboolers.

Regards,

T

Pov · #8 10-03-2005, 01:42 PM

SheridanCat has pretty much responded exactly as I would have. I second his thoughts with one possible exception I've been thinking about recently:

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When the game is LP, I often have a problem figuring out how to protect my hand...say I have AJd in early position and the flop comes Js-7s-2h. I've got TPTK on a fairly ragged board, but there's a flush draw possibility. I'd much rather be able to make it 2 bets to protect the pair, but when I try for the check-raise, it often just checks around. So I wind up just betting out, and folks are getting proper pot odds for the draw. This sort of thing happens a good bit.

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If the players are that passive, then I think betting out more is the right thing to do. While they might be getting proper pot odds to call your bet, giving a free card is even more dangerous. Your bet may also shake a player or two out of the hand. This has two benefits. First, it may help deny pot odds to the drawing player and it may keep you from being beaten by some unlikely two pair or a better pair if an overcard comes.

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It may seem like splitting hairs, but if this were AQ with TPTK I would be much more inclined to bet out if I thought a check-raise was unlikely to work. With the AJ or AT type hands I will often still go for the check-raise in these decently large pots. Notice that if you miss the check-raise, your double sized bet on the turn is exactly the size it would have been if you had check-raised but the pot is smaller. Your opponents also have one less card to draw so this bet is actually quite a bit better at protecting your hand than even a check-raise would have been.

Of course that's assuming no spade, K or Q hits on the turn. That's a lot of cards. It's precisely because it is so many cards that I'm tempted to wait for the turn since my hand will lose a lot of value a large percentage of the time I see little value in betting out this flop unless my opponents will now fold their KT or QT hands. But if the game is LP this is probably not the case and while their mistake makes us money, it isn't very much. For me lately this has tipped the scales to still trying for the check-raise and I think I like that better though I'm still thinking about it. Discussion is welcomed.

Pov · #9 10-03-2005, 01:46 PM

Another question for you. You mention your play based upon position a lot. That's generally good, but I don't notice you mentioning the number of players in the pot which is really what position is all about pre-flop. For instance, while you'd limp 55 up front in a LP game assuming you're getting plenty of callers and no raise, if you were first in from MP3 I hope you would fold this hand. Are you?

Eratosthenes · #10 10-03-2005, 03:41 PM

An 82BB downswing is not unusual (unpleasent, though) and has to be viewed with the context of your experience and past performance. If these were your first 1800 hands, I would have some beginner's advice. OTOH, if you have played 30k hands before this downswing where you have a decent win rate, I would advise you stay calm and work through it.

On another tack, live poker has a lot of distractions and the handicap of free alcohol. Are you sure that you are playing your A game in the casino? I can easily multitable online because I have detailed stats on my opponents. When I play live, I have to pay a lot more attention to opponents' play, even though I am only playing one table.