AKs - 600 NL PP

[Sadat X]

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Because of your stack size I normally lead this flop.


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Leading the flop is not the answer. You'll only get blown off the nut flush draw when the aggressive button raises, and the board provides no reason for tight big stacked villian to believe his hand still isn't good.

Check-call the flop and check-fold the turn unimproved.

Garland


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I think this is very weak.

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I think if you want to take the aggressive route, the best play is to lead for about $50 and make a big reraise if he comes over the top. I don't think this is bad play if your opponent is capable of folding a big pair on the flop.

[-Skeme-]

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???

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I really have no idea why I said that. I meant to say, "I like check-call on flop, but I fold river."

[Garland]

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If he raises your checkraise, you can fold.

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By the time he reraises the check-raise, you're just about given odds to call if you at worst believe he has AA. It's even better if you're drawing to a live A.

Suppose the line on the flop went something like: check, bet $70, check-raise to $210, re-raise to $939 and all-in. You are getting 1258:729 to call or exactly 1.73:1 odds to call.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1096387
pokenum -h as ks - kd kh -- 9s 6d 2s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 2s 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 456 46.06 534 53.94 0 0.00 0.461
Kd Kh 534 53.94 456 46.06 0 0.00 0.539

This says you are a slight dog at 1.16:1 against. You have to call.

Even against AA, you have to call the re-raise all-in:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1096390
pokenum -h as ks - ad ah -- 9s 6d 2s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 2s 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 360 36.36 630 63.64 0 0.00 0.364
Ad Ah 630 63.64 360 36.36 0 0.00 0.636

This says you need 1.74:1 to call. You just about have odds to call here too.

In my opinion, your line is weak. Chip-spewing and then folding when you have odds to call. You might as well check-raise all-in if you feel there's an inkling of a chance that he might fold.

Garland

[savman]

i agree. call the flop bet, 70/109 isnt bad, fold the turn unimproved. if i take any other line it is check raise all in. remote chance he folds, and it allows you to play you sets fast on drawing boards....probably doenst benefit u much in this large player pool.

[greenroom1]

pushing on the flop seems like something I would do in a MTT or SNG. I think this would also work better against a smaller stack. It is 11-10 favorite if I am playing a pocket pair QQs or less and no set. Against KKs it is 10-11 dog. And against AA it is about a 2 to l dog. 3 to 1 dog against a set.

Seems like a coin flip in most instances if he calls. The only hands he would release are AK/AQ and pairs 88s or less. I don't think those are likely hands because of his reraise and tight table image. I think I would only be willing to risk about 40% of my chips at 150-200BB.

I appreciate all the feedback.

[Stormwolf]

He has 48% equity against a range of JJ+, 47% for QQ+, even for KK+ its 41%, throw in some AK AQs or TT it makes an easy lead get raised push