Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2

#1 11-23-2005, 09:49 AM

Primarily a Hold'Em player, novice O8 player, and I'm trying to adjust to hand values. I've figured out that unless you scoop the implied odds and the effective odds suck at this game. But on this hand, I've got the third nut for high and am drawing to the 2nd nut for low (or the nut if I get a real lucky 3 on the board).

Was this hand played okay?

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Omaha/8 (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, SB calls, BB folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, MP3 folds, Hero folds, Button raises, SB calls.

River: (9 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Button bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 11 BB

jb9 · #2 11-23-2005, 11:55 AM

I think this fold is good.

The button's flop bet could have been an attempt to pick up the pot or get a turn free card (if he has a set), but when SB bets the turn that is more worrying.

Maybe I'd call down with the nut low draw if I thought SB would bet the turn with less than the nut flush, but even then folding might be best (especially with flop bettor yet to act, since he could raise and I'd be caught in the middle...).

#3 11-23-2005, 12:07 PM

Like the OP I am trying to learn O8 starting with limit and I have a question.

What would you think of folding this preflop unless the A were suited?

jthegreat · #4 11-23-2005, 12:15 PM

It's definitely playable in LP with several callers. It's not a monster by any means, but it has potential.

#5 11-24-2005, 03:20 PM

I really appreciate the responses, they have definately got me thinking in a few directions.

I’ve definitely got a mixed response on this hand that makes me wonder who is right. I’ve gotten fold the flop or raise the flop I’ve gotten raise the turn, I’ve gotten I played it right, I’ve gotten a very strong you can’t fold the turn.

So, I’ve gotten nowhere, someone please tell me who’s right. Lol, that won’t work anyway as I don’t know who to believe. Maybe after I spend more time reading this forum I’ll get a feel for who the heavy weights are.

Let me try to analyze the turn although I’m so new to O8 that I’m not sure of my judgment on hand strength. Hopefully then you all can pick away at my assumptions which should be educational to me.

The turn card was a blank yet the SB bets into 4 players including the flop better. I really have to discount my Q high flush here, I’m guessing I’m only better than the SB for high 25% of the time and better than the Button for high 33% of the time.

I’ve got 4 outs to the nut low, which may result in a split let’s just guess 10% of the time. I’ve got 12 outs to the 2nd nut low, let’s say that’s a split 10% and when it doesn’t split I win 66% of the time vs. the SB and 66% of the time vs. the button.

I’m assuming on average it will cost 2 BB to see the river and the amount for me to win if I scoop is 9BB.

Catch the nut low and win low = 4/44 * 90% = 8.2% * 4.5 = .37 BB
Catch the nut low and tie low = 4/44 * 10% = 0.9% * 2.25 = .02
Catch the 2nd nut low and win low = 12/44 * 90% *66% * 66% = 11% * 4.5 = .48
Catch the 2nd nut low and tie low = 12/44 * 10% = 3% * 2.25 = .06

Make the low and win high = 12/44 * 25% * 33% = 2% * 4.5 = .10
Miss the low but win high = 32/44 * 25% * 33% = 6% * 4.5 = .27

Lose both high and low 1 – (8.2% + 0.9% + 11% + 3% +2% +6%) = 69% * -2 = -1.38

Total (big caveat: if my assumptions and math are correct) = - 0.08 BB

I’ve done this type of work up for Hold’em, wow, it’s much more complicated for a split pot game.

jb9 · #6 11-25-2005, 08:09 AM

I'm certainly not the most experienced or successful player on this forum, but I'm surprised there has been such strong support for throwing money in the pot with this hand. It may be borderline, but I think it is on the bad side of the border.

I think the only times it can be profitable to play a hand like this on the turn are when you are short handed or your opponents are complete idiots (which sometimes they are, but such a read wasn't mentioned by OP).

So, if you've found an O/8 game where people are betting J high flushes and A5 low draws while at the same time they fold K high flushes and nut low draws, then call or raise the turn and add everyone at the table to your buddy list.

Otherwise, I still think it is a fold.

As Zehn · #7 11-23-2005, 12:27 PM

Don't forget the OP posted a blind and got to see the flop for free.

got0uts · #8 11-23-2005, 01:09 PM

Your flop decision should be either fold or raise (then fold to a third bet).

Why called the flop then folded the turn?

Vee Quiva · #9 11-23-2005, 01:30 PM

The turn bet by the sb is worrisome, however I think the raise might be a better option than folding.

I think you would be able to drive out some of the nut low draws. If you do and the sb has the nut flush, maybe you get lucky and back into the low on the river.

#10 11-23-2005, 01:53 PM

Got0uts wrote:
[ QUOTE ]
Why called the flop then folded the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking was:

Why would the SB bet that turn card? Looks like the liklihood of my 3rd nut flush being best just decreased by a lot.

And, now I may face a raise from the player still to act with what I now think is a weak hand.