Hypothetical Question

[David Sklansky]

In a typical ten handed 30-60 game where you normally make $50 an hour, what would your win rate be if you were dealt two face up kings every hand and your opponents didn't collude? (Assume 40 hands per hour.)

[ALL1N]

$1300/hr at 40 h/hr.

[catlover]

David that seems like a very difficult question. How about if we start with the heads up case? There at least there is hope. If that proves solvable (and it well might), we can then think about adding players.

[Shandrax]

If everyone folds, you would collect 1200 in blinds per hour. Every 5.5 hours you would pay off aces (not counting the times you will draw out) and every 5.5 hours you would split a pot with someone who has the two other kings.

Unfortunately in the 2/3 structure the small blind will call with most of his hands and big blind will usually call with all of his hands. So it is all about winning chances of kings against 2 more or less random hands.

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
David that seems like a very difficult question.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is only difficult if the fact that the game is normally beatable for $50/hr means there is an idiot trying to crack you from any position but the BB. Otherwise, assuming no collusion then 2 things happen:

1) Someone has AA. They will reraise preflop, and we will lose 4BB total calling down.

This will happen 9/221, so 9 * (-4.75) / 221 = -0.19 BB

2) Someone will call from the BB with an ace or pocket pair and try to spike. The value lost here is marginal, and I'd estimate it at ~0.05 BB, since the implied odds aren't great for them.

So that's -0.24 BB to tack onto the 0.75BB gained from stealing the blinds ~0.51 BB per hand, or ~$1225/hr.

edit- missed the 0.75 BB lost in stolen blinds when AA happens. also forgot other KK, but that's worth ~0.005BB.

[catlover]

I have to take issue with your claim that someone trying to spike doesn't have good implied odds. The problem being that we won't know if they spiked or not.

Are we going to fold whenever an ace comes -- and let the PPs bluff us out? Or are we going to call down -- and lose lots of money to Ax?

It's not even clear to me that it would be unprofitable for one of these hands to cold call behind our openraise -- and raise the flop if they like it. AA can do the same.

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
I have to take issue with your claim that someone trying to spike doesn't have good implied odds. The problem being that we won't know if they spiked or not.

Are we going to fold whenever an ace comes -- and let the PPs bluff us out? Or are we going to call down -- and lose lots of money to Ax?

It's not even clear to me that it would be unprofitable for one of these hands to cold call behind our openraise -- and raise the flop if they like it. AA can do the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

As soon as we get raised on a street we just call down (mostly; we mix in a few folds to the raises at the game theory optimal amount). Cool?

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
big blind will usually call with all of his hands. So it is all about winning chances of kings against 2 more or less random hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding, right?? He'll call with Ax and pocket pairs and no more.

[catlover]

Definitely I agree if we are raised on any street, we should just call down. You don't reraise someone when your cards are face up. Furthermore, frequently on the turn, and always on the river, we should refrain from even *betting*.

The problem is that to answer David's question, we need to know what that "game theory optimal amount" for folding is. And that's very difficult, especially considering that it's board dependent.

[arod15]

About 80$ an hour. If hey were face up, oppenents with pocket pairs would have all the incentive to play and catch a set. It would depend on how many times people would suck out on you. It would be more but not that much more...