Bet the river holding the nut flush with a pair on borad?

[joeg]

Hi everyone

This is a hand at a super loose pacific $1-$2 game, I get dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the cutoff position, 5 people call in front of me so i raise and the button, big blind + all callers call and 8 of us take the flop which comes

6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Ok, so I kind of like my hand, a good low draw and reasonable shot at high, its checked to me and I bet and all call and the turn comes T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], its checked to me an I bet again, this time 3 players fold and 5 of us see the river which was Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and it is checked to me and I have the nut flush but a pair is on the board and its 5 way, its checked to me and I'm fairly happy with my hand but am not sure if I should bet out as I would probably be check raised by a boat and have to call as the pot is so big, but on the same token as the pot is so big any other reasonable hand will also have to call. Anyway, as I have to beat 4 opponents I bottle it and check it down and win the pot, should I have value bet here, and also any other commments on the play on other streets of the hand

Cheers

[L0QTiS]

If the button folded the turn and you're now last to act, I think I'd probably go ahead and value bet for sure. Judgement call if not but I'm inclined to bet anyway.

If this were any other site, I might be a little more cautious, but the players at Pacific for the most part are truely aweful. I'd bet and expect to get called by someone with a naked 5, worse flush or busted low.

The way this plays out, I'd only be fearful of QQxx - you would have heard from 66xx, 5xxx or 56xx by now 5Txx seems unlikely since you have one T.

[Yads]

I'd value bet and maybe think about folding to a raise. The thing is Pacific players are so awful, they wouldn't put you on a flush draw since you bet the flop. I don't understand why you were betting the previous streets, but now that you have the hand you were trying to get you freeze up?

[BradleyT]

He had nut low with a draw. If the low comes in he can feel comfortable about his hand. If the low and flush comes in he can raise and re-raise. If just the flush comes in he has to be somewhat careful. IMO the flush part was just a backup to this hand.

I would bet for value here, you'll get lesser flushes calling (maybe even raising), some naked 5's calling and I think you would have heard from a FH by now.

[joeg]

I would never fold to raise, there is to bigger chance that someone is betting a smaller flush at pacific, but the main hand I was aiming for was the low. I think the correct play was to value bet here, I knew it myself at the time but wasnt sure as I only play a little omaha. Am I correct in assuming that against better players the check is probably the better play, or is a value bet still in order here as it is likely that a better player would have let you know earlier with a flush?

[gergery]

I would have value bet. The main draws your opponents were likely calling with were low draws, straight draws, 5xxx and flushdraws. Since only the flushdraw hit, most of them were likely to fold.

I think good players with strong hands would have raised in EP but checkraised in LP, since they could expect you to bet and they want to drive the rest of the table to put money in. Good players with some 2-way hands (ieA347 w 2 lowclubs) would have done the opposite to put pressure on one-way hands and try to get the limpers to fold. But I don’t think you have to worry about what good players would do – with 8 people seeing the flop and no one raising its unlikely there are many at this table.

If you’re beat, its most likely by T5xx or Q5xx here, but those don’t outweigh the times weaker flushes or other crap like QTxx, A5xx will make a crying call because of “pot odds”.

Just my 2 cents,
Greg

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so I kind of like my hand, a good low draw and reasonable shot at high

[/ QUOTE ]

Joeg - If you say so. However, I wouldn't like it much. The board is paired so that you generally don't want to pay to draw for a flush (because of the danger of encountering a full house on the river). You do have the nut low draw, but with no counterfeit protection.

The ten of hearts on the turn gives you a blocker for the full house, which helps a bit, but with one blocker on the river, in a loose game like this one - and with eight opponents seeing the flop, it's about 3 to 1 that at least one of your opponents will have a full house or quads on the river. (Without the blocker, it would be about 4 to 1). How do I know that stuff? I know it from calculations and simulations.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly happy with my hand but am not sure if I should bet

[/ QUOTE ]

The answer is you should definitely not bet, but should probably call if someone else bets.

If someone else bets, what is at issue is the amount bet plus all the money that is already in the pot. However, if you bet, what is at issue is how much more you can extract from your opponents when you happen to have a winning hand. Get the difference? (It's a very big and very important difference and you should see it clearly if you're going to try to make money playing Omaha-8).

If you're going to win, you already have won the money that is already in the pot. Whether you bet or not has nothing to do with your winning or losing what is already in the pot.

Thus if you have the winning hand, your bet here is purely to extract more bets from your opponents. But the odds are about three to one that you don't have the winning hand.

I think I'd want at least three opponents to somehow call the one time out of four when I did have a winning hand in order to pay for the three times out of four when I bet with the losing hand.

But who is going to call you here? Are you suggesting that three fools without full houses, and without even the nut flush are going to call you here? (I've read about how bad the play is in these games, but surely there's a limit to pure stupidity, even in low limit on-line games).

I wouldn't think you'd get check-raised (although it's a possibility), but I would think the only people who could call would probably have a full house.

You might win (and that's why you should call a bet from an opponent here). As it turned out this time, you did win - but a flush is certainly not favored to win when the board is paired in a full loose game like this one.

Buzz

[Joshua57]

First off I'd like to compliment you on how informative your posts are. Secondly I'd like to know if you've posted odds such as the ones stated above, or know where to find a comprehensive listing. I've studied a little combinatorics in class, but i have little time to sit down and do all the work(I'm not sure if it would all be correct anyways). I think i have a few leaks in my game where hands seem stronger to me post-flop then they really are.

thanks for your time
Joshua

[Buzz]

Joshua - Thanks for the compliment. I don't know of any site that has those odds posted. Phat Mack ran a series of excellent simulations a while back that led to some conclusions, but I can't remember if we wrote about odds or not. (I did know these odds at that time).

Here are the results of four simulations from today. I used Wilson's Turbo Omaha-8 with 9 Painless Potters. Painless Potter is a Wilson character who never folds. Painless Potter is not realistic, except that when eight opponents see the flop and then stay for the turn, you do get an idea of the probability one of them has made a full house.

I set up todays sims so that one of the Painless Potters has the nut flush, but the board is paired. The other eight Painless Potters are dealt random hands. 10,000 times.

Here are the results:

(1) • Board 2c4c4h8c9h. Hand Ac3c7hKh (no blockers). Painless Potter with the nut flush wins 1931 and loses 8069.

(2) • Board 2c4c4h8cKd. Hand Ac3c7hKh (one blocker). Painless Potter with the nut flush wins 2464 and loses 7536.

(3) • Board 2c4c4h7cKd. Hand Ac3c7hKh (two blockers). Painless Potter with the nut flush wins 3127 and loses 6873.

(4) • Board 2c4c4h8c9h. Hand Ac3c4dKh (pair blocker). Painless Potter with the nut flush wins 3641 and loses 6359.

I'm not sure I'm using the correct terminology.

The first sim listed above is 8069/1931, or about 4/1. Or the odds are four to one.

The second sim listed above is the one that is pertinent to this thread. 7536/2464, = about 3/1. Thus the odds are three to one (or you have about one chance in four).

The odds aren't all there is to making a decision about what action to take. A lot depends on the credibility of who is betting, the betting history of the hand (and session) and who is still in the hand. Just seemed like it might be helpful to list some odds in this thread.

I already had calculated these odds a while back, but I'm like you - I never know for sure if I have done the calculations correctly or not. This particular calculation, as I recall, was a bit sticky and I used an approximation method to get the answer. Then Mack verified it with his sims, and now I've also verified it with today's sims.

One of the cardinal rules of winning Omaha-8 is not to draw to a flush when the board is already paired. If you abide by that cardinal rule, you don't really have to know the exact odds. I don't know as these odds are listed anywhere besides this thread. I've never seen them anywhere (except in a couple of my own computer files). I can't remember if I thought these odds were pertinent to a thread before.

The rule is not to draw to a flush if the board is paired. (Joeg was drawing to the nut low, a reasonable draw, and then made the flush). When the board simultaneously flushes and pairs on the river, or when the board pairs after you have made your flush, you have to decide what to do - and generally should probably check and call, if the flush with a paired board is all you have.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
But who is going to call you here? Are you suggesting that three fools without full houses, and without even the nut flush are going to call you here? (I've read about how bad the play is in these games, but surely there's a limit to pure stupidity, even in low limit on-line games).

[/ QUOTE ]

To be honest there is no limit to the stupidity. You'll get naked 5's to call you here all day long.