Call the overbet?

[ajmargarine]

Hypothetical. NLHE. It's heads-up and you have just seen the turn card.

$100 pot. Villian goes all-in for his remaining $200. You have him covered, so it costs you $200 to call.

You put him on a range of hands that tells you with the river card to come:
--If you are ahead, you win 90% of the time.
--If you are behind, you win 20% of the time.

You estimate that you are ahead 40% of the time here, and behind 60% of the time.

Call or fold?

[KJL]

Call?

.4*.9=.36
.2*.6=.12

so you have a 48% chance to win which is about 1.1-1 and you are getting 1.5-1 from the pot.
But I dont know, I might have done it completely wrong.

[ajmargarine]

After posting this it kind of came together. Check my work someone?!?

(.36*200)+(.12*200)-(.52*100) = EV
72 + 24 - 52 = EV
EV = +$44

Easy call.

[KJL]

[ QUOTE ]
(.36*200)+(.12*200)-(.52*100) = EV
72 + 24 - 52 = EV
EV = +$44


[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is $300 not $200. And you will lose 200 not 100.
So it is
(.36*300)+(.12*300)-(.52*200)
108+32-104
EV= +36
still an easy call.

[ajmargarine]

No, I think mine is right. (Or we are both wrong) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Ref!

Anyone.....anyone.......(echo) (echo)

[KJL]

There is 100 in the pot + the villian's 200 bet = 300 and you have to call a 200 bet, so you will lose 200.
But I could be wrong.

[ajmargarine]

oh man, I am wrong. No clue what I was thinking last nite. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Bugs me that no one who knows the answer for sure just doesn't pop their head in here and say that your answer is correct if it is.

[KJL]

I am sure it is right, I was just afraid that I misinterpreted your original post.

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is $300 not $200. And you will lose 200 not 100.
So it is
(.36*300)+(.12*300)-(.52*200)
108+32-104
EV= +36
still an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

That should be 108+36-104
EV = +40.

[KJL]

Sorry that was a typo.