KQo Live at the Wynn <3

[Entity]

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I would fold the turn. Based on my estimate you have 7 pure outs here, which means you need pots odds of approx 6-1 to call, you are getting 5.25-1 to call and you are not closing the action. Implied odds are not much of a factor since you only have 3 outs to the nuts. I would estimate your implied odds to be zero, since many of your outs will cost you a bet just as much as it makes you a bet, and what little implied odds you do have from your 3 nut outs is probably negated in the long run by the fact that you are not closing the action, which means it will sometimes cost you 2BB to see this river. Given that you called the turn, I would fold the river. I cannot say that folding this river is correct, Im just telling you what i would do. The UTG+2 guy did donk the turn on the 3 of hearts which means he mightve had a pair/flushdraw type hand(Ah4h) or just a naked flush draw. His turn action combined with his river raise is very consistent with a made flush, and the SB could have a flush also.

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You need about 5.5:1, so it's pretty damned close when you expect the other guy to call and not raise, which, from what I've seen of live poker, is gonna happen fairly often.

Anyway. Just MHO.

Rob

[SackUp]

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Live players, especially in Vegas, don't raise straight and flush boards with 2 pair or a set. At least in my experience.

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Ok fair enough. But the same players will donk a FD on the turn like that?

That is different from what I'm used to.

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I would fold the turn. Based on my estimate you have 7 pure outs here, which means you need pots odds of approx 6-1 to call, you are getting 5.25-1 to call and you are not closing the action. Implied odds are not much of a factor since you only have 3 outs to the nuts. I would estimate your implied odds to be zero, since many of your outs will cost you a bet just as much as it makes you a bet, and what little implied odds you do have from your 3 nut outs is probably negated in the long run by the fact that you are not closing the action, which means it will sometimes cost you 2BB to see this river. Given that you called the turn, I would fold the river. I cannot say that folding this river is correct, Im just telling you what i would do. The UTG+2 guy did donk the turn on the 3 of hearts which means he mightve had a pair/flushdraw type hand(Ah4h) or just a naked flush draw. His turn action combined with his river raise is very consistent with a made flush, and the SB could have a flush also.

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You need about 5.5:1, so it's pretty damned close when you expect the other guy to call and not raise, which, from what I've seen of live poker, is gonna happen fairly often.

Anyway. Just MHO.

Rob

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It is close, If I knew the other guy was gonna just call also, I would call, but i dont know this. The other guy could very well fold, and sometimes he certainly will raise. No matter what though, this pot odds situation is very close. I'm still folding here for the reasons ive listed, but im not expecting to get rich making these kind of folds.

[BWebb]

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Live players, especially in Vegas, don't raise straight and flush boards with 2 pair or a set. At least in my experience.

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Ok fair enough. But the same players will donk a FD on the turn like that?

That is different from what I'm used to.

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I think if he flopped a set or two pair, he's checkraising the flop, no? I could see him deciding to lead if he hit two pair on the turn and didn't want it to get checked through, but I doubt the 3 gave him two pair.

[callmedonnie]

The turn is really close, as everyone else has noted. I am lazy and tend to just approximate to about 7.5 outs, so its pretty marginal. Obviously flush draws significantly alter this.

Is UTG+2 the type to wait for a safe turn? I know he is loose preflop, but you also said he was decent. If he had a flush draw I would expect a bet on flop if anywhere, not turn. However he might not do that in fear of you raising and knocking out SB. So why would he lead the turn with a flush draw, a time where most draws prefer to play cheaply? I would expect a flush from SB more than UTG.

Anyway, I would have a tough time on this one. If SB looked pissed about the raise I'm calling. I'm probably calling anyway. For some reason I don't think UTG+2 has flush. But at same time, w/ two pair that is a tough river raise. But, He may think you have overs and not put enough thought into implications of that river, and he may think SB is just terrible.

[avisco01]

You're getting about 5 to 1 on a call on the river (unless you believe the SB will reraise of course). Is a straight good in this situation 1 out of 5 times? I'd call myself, unless I had a major tell on one or both of these players.

[shant]

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The other guy could very well fold, and sometimes he certainly will raise.

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Just based on the read of him, and old-guy live players around the world, the turn-checkraise was only happening a very small percentage of the time.

[callmedonnie]

hey shant, what did they showdown?

[shant]

When he bet the turn I thought pair+flush draw so I felt like folding the river because live players usually only raise the river with big hands, but I felt like he could've had a set or 2-pair so I called and the old guy folded which I found really strange.

UTG+2 had J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[br549007]

PF and Flop OK, I would have folded the turn, but now that you are at the river call the 2 bets. I do not see SB re raising but if he does and UTG+2 calls, fold.