100 vs 6500 - Page 3

WLVRYN · #21 07-04-2005, 12:49 AM

I saw a thread earlier that put it around 3,700 currently if I remember correctly. Here's the link:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...14&fpart=1

Dynasty · #22 07-04-2005, 12:52 AM

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But David Williams over Raymer? If your concern is a track record, that one doesn't make much sense to me.

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Hasn't Williams made more TV final tables?

JohnnyHumongous · #23 07-04-2005, 12:58 AM

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I'm pretty sure I'd want Raymer on my 100 list before Tuan Le.

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Raymer was a pretty close alternate.

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Sklansky is dead weight on your list in comparison with Raymer (no offense David). Sklansky doesn't play the megalo- stack-building style that one will need to make a final table of 10 people out of 6500. Even money, I would take Sklansky to finish higher than Raymer. But all else being equal I would take Raymer to catch the final table over Sklansky.

paperboyNC · #24 07-04-2005, 01:17 AM

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So if that's not wrong then the chances of there not being a single name from my list at the final table would come to [(6500/6800)(6499/6799)(6498/6798)(6497/6797)(6496/6796)(6495/6795)(6494/6794)(6493/6793)(6492/6792)], or [66.6%].

Am I wrong?

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I did the calculations myself and get the same result. Of course I don't know if your method of adding 300 to the total players is correct. But either way it doesn't make a huge difference in the calculation. Just a couple percentage points.

housenuts · #25 07-04-2005, 01:54 AM

i would wager one of those fellows will make the final table. look at the final tables of the recent events, there's like 4 or 5 of those guys at each of them. granted the fields are smaller, but still i'm quite confident one of them will make it.

orensi · #26 07-04-2005, 06:49 AM

My money is on the list.
If -none- of the Big Guns make it to the final table then the ME is too large.

TiltsMcFabulous · #27 07-05-2005, 04:54 AM

It would absolutely astonish me of none of those pros made the final table.

~ Tilts

Ond · #28 07-05-2005, 06:50 AM

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My money is on the list.
If -none- of the Big Guns make it to the final table then the ME is too large.

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I agree.

Maybe they should raise the entry fee to 25k next year?