Middle set

[Burdzthewurd]

2/4 LO8, 1st hand at table

Folds to Button who open-limps, SB completes, I check my horrid TTT7 in the BB

Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hmm, SB checks, I bet, Button raises, SB cold-calls, I 3-bet, Button calls, SB calls

Turn somewhat ugly J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB checks, I bet, Button raises, SB 3-bets!, I fold, Button calls

River 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, Button calls

SB shows AKQ9 and Button mucks


I'm pretty sure betting the turn is ok, I can't worry about exactly KQJx or the gutshot everytime.

[Dennisa]

You played the hand very bad. I would equate middle set in o8 to top pair in Holdem. A good hand but, you have big problems if you do not pair the board. Bet Ok, but I would not 3 bet it as you have 6 cards in the deck to help you and 39 cards that put out a low/ str8 or flush boards. I would wait to put more money in on the turn with the board more developed. I think it would of been safe to assume on your hand that you are drawing to a 9 outer. Its not holdem, you need nuts to win in this game.

[Buzz]

Burdz - The flop bet is not terrible. But then when Button raises and SB cold calls, I think you should give it up. the three-bet is way out of line.

Then the bet on the turn is also way out lf line. Now there's a possible straight on the board and still the diamond draw. What you have here is a check/fold or at best a check/call.

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I'm pretty sure betting the turn is ok, I can't worry about exactly KQJx or the gutshot everytime.

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After the turn it's not "exactly KQJx or the gutshot."

Instead, it's simply KQXY. And there's a very strong chance one of your opponents here has it.

And there's also AAXY, JJXY, the diamond draw, and 345X.

34XY, 35XY, 45XY and AJXY are possible threats too, with the right card on the river.

You are the favorite against random cards, but considering the betting, assuming these opponents know the game, they are not likely to have random cards. Instead they have a flop fit and very possibly a turn fit.

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SB checks, I bet, Button raises, SB 3-bets!

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Gadzooks!

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I fold

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For sure!

Buzz

I'm relatively new to the game but I don't get your reasoning. Wouldn't you want to 3-bet the flop against most of the hands you listed (345X, KQJx, diamond draw...)? I realize there are lots of cards that could kill your hand but you're a significant EV favorite over many of those listed hands. Your opponents would need a near perfect combination of cards for your hand to be EV- (other than against AAxx which seems unlikely given no preflop raise). Even if you're up against KQJx and 345x with a diamond draw, you're still not losing much by 3-betting the flop.

[Buzz]

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I'm relatively new to the game but I don't get your reasoning.

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Bluegilled - I'll try to make my reasoning clear to you. Keep in mind that I'm not always right. (Just ask my wife).

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Wouldn't you want to 3-bet the flop against most of the hands you listed (345X, KQJx, diamond draw...)?

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No.

By the time Burdz gets to the river, the board will either enable a straight or a full house (or both). It's also very possible a diamond flush will be enabled, and at least one of the next two cards enabling low is probable.

That's what's going to happen. It's impossible to take two more cards out of the deck and put them on the board after this flop and not have that happen.

So let's look ahead to possible nuts on the final board. Assuming Hero does not have a diamond, after this flop from Hero's perspective, there are
• 306/990 ways quads will be the nuts
• 305/990 ways a flush will be the nuts, and
• 379/990 ways a straight will be the nuts.

Hero cannot make any of those. However, Hero will be in good shape to win for high with roughly a bit more than half or the 306/990 alloted to quads. Of these, Hero will split with low roughly a bit less than half the time.

And there's always the chance that a flush or straight will be enabled but nobody will make the flush or straight. Should a straight become enabled, the probability of an opponent making a straight depends on the straight or straights that become possible. For example, a six plus an eight would enable a straight, but considering the betting on the second betting round, neither of these two opponents is likely to hold a six plus an eight. So yes, there's a chance that Hero will win for high with the unimproved set of tens.

Burdz should want the board to pair so that he doesn't have to be concerned about a flush or straight, but a pair of whats? He can't really want the board to pair with aces because then he'll very possibly be facing a better full house, and it's impossible for the board to pair with tens, because Burdz has all the rest of the tens in his own hand. That leaves Burdz rooting for a deuce on the turn or a running pair on the turn and river - but even a deuce on the turn does not cinch the hand for him. Morever, there are only three deuces left in the deck while everything else on the turn is potentially bad for Burdz!!

A running pair on the turn and river would make a full house for Burdz, but could also mean trouble.

Burdz only has two opponents here, but one of them raised on the first betting round and the second cold called. Burdz is sandwiched between the two of them in the betting order, and thus has poor position.

Burdz bets this flop and then Button raises. Small Blind cold calls the double bet.

From my own experience, I know flopped middle sets are dangerous. In this particular case, Burdz holds one of his own outs, making it impossible for him to end up with the nuts. But either of his opponents can make the nuts.

Why did Button raise? Is Button bluffing, or does Button have some kind of nice fit with this flop, possibly the set of aces I think the raise possibly represents?

Why did Small Blind call the double bet? Does Small Blind have no respect for the bets of Burdz or Button - or does Small Blind have some kind of nice fit with this flop? What would that fit be?

It's only a 2-4 game. Thus it's possible neither of these opponents knows how to play the game well. But if I were sitting in Burdz' shoes, I would not think this hand/flop would be much fun to play after the raise by Button and the cold call by Small Blind - especially when sitting sandwiched between the two of them.

I'm not much of a masochist. Button has raised Burdz' flop bet. I'd expect more of the same on the third and fourth betting rounds. I wouldn't enjoy enduring the pounding I'd expect to take here.

Burdz could very well be up against an opponent who started with a hand having a pair of aces and who now has flopped a set of aces, in which case Burdz is drawing dead. I would not want to sit through the rest of the betting rounds taking the heat while hoping for a deuce on the turn or river, and being stuck in the hand on the fourth betting round because of the size of the pot.

I like Burdz flop bet, after the check by Small Blind. But then when Button raises and Small Blind calls the double bet, I sense danger.

There's not much bluffing by most of my opponents in Omaha-8 games. There's some bluffing, but not much. Usually when people bet, they're betting more on what they actually have themsleves than on what they think their opponents don't have. Depends, of course.

When people put money into the pot, I wonder why they're doing it. It has been suggested by some on this forum that I over-think it. And that's possible. But that's the game for me.

I also approach Texas hold 'em from a thinking standpoint, trying to understand why people are putting money in the pot. But in Texas hold 'em, there are different considerations. People have fits with the flop much less often than in Omaha-8. Texas hold 'em players often bet more on what they think their opponents don't hold than on what they hold themselves.

Sometimes I encounter opponents who have carried that Texas hold 'em mind set into an Omaha-8 game. They're usually easy to spot because they bluff too much and they call too much for their own good.

But although I sometimes encounter opponents who don't know what they're doing, when I respond to these posts, I usually assume they do - even at low limits. Seems to me that although you do give up some profit in a low limit game by assuming your opponents know what they're doing, training yourself to think that way puts you in better stead to move up in limits.

And, honestly, most of my regular opponents in casino Omaha-8 games do know what they're doing - hopefully not as well as I do, but they're mostly not inept. (However, when I do encounter "Mr. Clueless" in a real game, I revise my strategy accordingly).

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Your opponents would need a near perfect combination of cards for your hand to be EV-

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I think you're assuming the set of tens will hold up on the river. It's possible that it will, but in this scenario, if it does, I think it will probably only be good for half the pot.

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(other than against AAxx which seems unlikely given no preflop raise).

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Rightly or wrongly, I would probably not raise before the flop with AAXY from either the button or the small blind here. Rightly or wrongly, neither would most of my opponents. Some would, but not many. In other words, raising before the flop with a pair of aces from late position or a blind is not typical of me or most of my opponents. (In truth, I do it more than my opponents, and I don't do it much).

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Even if you're up against KQJx and 345x with a diamond draw, you're still not losing much by 3-betting the flop.

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Basically, I don't want to three-bet here because I think it's a stupid bet to make against opponents who know what they're doing. I think it's a stupid bet because of the reasons I've given above.

However, if you're playing against opponents who don't know what they're doing and who are basically playing random cards, then it's probably not a stupid bet at all. The hand/flop is a favorite against two opponents with random cards.

KQJx and 345x with a diamond draw? I suppose it's possible, but so are many other possible hands.

I'd honestly be more concerned about one of the two opponents holding AAXY.

But if KQJx and 345x are the opponent's cards, then you're right that you're not losing much by three betting. But you are losing.

Buzz