Big Pots

[trumpman84]

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The fact that almost no one has chosen the answer "MP folding on the river" as the biggest mistake is crazy to me.

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Not necessarily without having of any idea of what he had. He could've flopped a gutshots straight draw + backdoor flush with a suited connector like 98 and getting correct odds to chase. When it didn't hit on the river, I think it's pretty safe to say you can save a bet with 9 high. So maybe it was a bad play if he folded jacks or queens on the river when the king fell, but without knowing what he had, it's hard to tell if he made a bad play.

[MHarris]

The flop bet is clearly the biggest mistake you made in this hand. Your line should have been check-fold if it were 2 back to you after your check, but if it were only one, a call is definitely in order getting close to 30:1. Since you did bet the flop, the pot is bloated, and calling getting 15:1 immediately with the possibility of 2 more cold-callers behind you is fine, since you're still getting god implied odds. You also have a backdoor straight draw.
The turn and river were well-played.
Your flop call after the cap is fine because you're getting some nice implied odds when you hit your hand.

[banditbdl]

Pre-flop calls are both fine, but the flop is an absolute disaster. You should be checking the flop and praying one of the preflop raisers slows down so you won't be facing two bets when it comes back around. If it is 2+ bets coming back to you after you check the flop you're gonna have to fold because you'll only be getting 14 or 15 to 1, and you need to be getting about 20-1 or so to pull a profit once implied odds and the odds you hit a set and still lose are factored in.

[illguitar]

Will someone please explain to me, as I asked earlier, why you take the odds for a flush draw or straight draw to the river on the flop, but not this? I am assuming that you guys look for 2-1 to call a flush draw right? That gives you 33% and it will hit roughly 35% of the time. However, if you take it only to the turn I think it hits, sorry from memory, about 19% of the time meaning that you should have roughly 4-1 odds to call the flop. This seems wrong to me. Help?

[trumpman84]

If you plan on chasing your set to the river, and your basin gyour odds off the river, then you should calculate your odds based on the fact that you'll have to call 1 or 2...maybe more big bets on the turn to see the river if they get into a raising war.

[Schneids]

If you have a magic 8-ball and know neither of these players have a higher set or will hit a higher set on the turn/river, the flop call is fine if we know both players have overpairs and will not give up their hands, plus if we know the flop action will not end up capped (thus further cutting into our odds)...

Getting 15-1 odds on a 22-1 hit means we need to make up more than 7SBs when we hit... a turn c/r with two callers is 8BBs, and then some more river action too... So mathematically it's easily a +EV call if you know all of the above.

So if you know ALL of these things, you can call two more cold.

You can't though since you have no idea if it's gonna be capped, you have no idea if you're already drawing to perfect perfect, and you have no idea if your hand will hold up at the river if you do turn a set.

Plus making this flop call means a duddy turn card may convince you to call yet again on the turn, which will almost always be a bad idea.

[pzhon]

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I was BERATED by two players at my table for calling on the flop. To me, folding is ridiculous. I was getting 15-1 in a huge pot!

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The biggest mistake of this hand was to berate you for making the common, lucrative error of calling with an unimproved low pocket pair in a multiway pot. Do not educate the fish when they call without odds and hit. Cheer them on.

[uuDevil]

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Calling the flop reraise cold getting 15:1 is pretty darn marginal.

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I like your overall analysis, but I don't agree with this part. I think only one poster has noted that hero also has a backdoor straight draw. If hero has ~3.5 outs, calling is clearly correct. Is there a reason to discount these extra outs in this case?

[AngryCola]

I'm not sure if you were talking about me, but I diid mention the backdoor straight draw at one point.

Honestly, the hand is hard for me to judge.

I don't really know who is doing the betting/rasing or much of the preflop action. The backdoor straight draw is there, but is your set going to be good if you even hit it? I need to know more about the action in this hand to make a better read. I wouldn't be surprised if someone with a set of fours was the upset opponent. I know your cards are live if someone actually had a set of fours, but that's not my point. I think in a pot this multiway, with some of the action that apparently went down, I would have to lean towards folding because of the chance that I could be drawing dead. Of course, if I actually made a set on the flop, I wouldn't live in constant fear of set over set, but I worry a little more when I'm drawing to one and the pot is that multiway with heavy action. But I'm still lacking enough information on the action to really get the feel of the action.

If you are drawing dead, all you have is your backdoor straight draw, which isn't worth very much. I don't discount the straight draw as much as the set outs.

[k_squared]

[ QUOTE ]
Will someone please explain to me, as I asked earlier, why you take the odds for a flush draw or straight draw to the river on the flop, but not this? I am assuming that you guys look for 2-1 to call a flush draw right? That gives you 33% and it will hit roughly 35% of the time. However, if you take it only to the turn I think it hits, sorry from memory, about 19% of the time meaning that you should have roughly 4-1 odds to call the flop. This seems wrong to me. Help?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your intuition is correct. You shouldn't treat these situations differently. It is both correct to say that after flopping a flush draw you will hit a flush 35% of the time by the river, and that you will catch a set 10% of the time when you don't hit on the flop. Yet to correctly use those odds means that you need to correctly extrapolate how the hand will play out over the next two rounds. If you can do this without error then you would be justified to use those odds... BUT that is a very difficult thing to do in a multi way pot, especially one that was capped pre-flop and three bet on the flop. To calculate the odds the pot will be giving you on the river you have to be able to say how much money you will have to put in and also how much will then be in the pot. Yet, doing so accurately would mean knowing whether or not your field of opponents will bet, call, raise, or fold. The situation then can vary from you having to call no more bets to catch your set (no one bets) to having to call 4 more big bets [which is 8 small bets] to catch your set on the river. The odds then vary from you getting infinite pot odds (not having to pay anything to win) to having to pay $55 for the chance at a pot that would be at most $295 in which case the pot is laying odds of less than 6 to 1. So, a huge spectrum of possibilities exist in which the odds for each situation dramatically change based on HOW YOUR OPPONENTS PLAY. Therefore to simplify the decision making process, and hence the need to guess about what your opponenets will do using the odds for whether or not that particular bet/call are justified serves to make the evaluation something which can in fact be done accurately (i.e. without the huge range of possible outcomes). Is it justified to call this bet as a result of the odds I will be getting if I make my hand on the next card (taking implied odds into account... which also means thinking about whether or not another player will re-raise the turn and force you to put more money into the pot...). If you decide yes and then are faced with another decision, either because of more raises in that round, or the next one you can re-evaluate. At least now though it is a decision you can make based on knowledge can reasonably deduce...

One other comment... calling the 2 bets back to you on the flop you also needed to consider the chances of the original re-raiser capping it. Because if he caps it then you would be faced with paying a total of $15 for $180 which is much worse than $10 for $150 and based on the texture of the hand as described that would have been a reasonable action by this player. If you make the call based on your pot odds because you don't think he will raise... and he does raise you must of course call, but that doesn't make your call one that has +EV it rather makes it one with with less -EV because you are now in a situation where over the course of the round you have paid $20 for a chance at $180... and in actuality you paid $15 for a chance at $170... the only reason the pot odds existed for you to call is because you made a mistake to create those odds in an artificial way (i.e. with your own money!!!) These odds are not so good when you look at it with some perspective. While you made a borderline decision to call the $10 it was only even made possible because of mistakes you made earlier.

Finally, so I think you are right... both with flushes and with small pairs you have to consider the odds on that particular street, especially when faced with a field of opponents. In the case of a nut flush or nut straight draw you might also be getting extra outs from backdoor draws, over cards etc. All these factor into a very complicated picture of how many outs you have... with an under pair it isn't complicated at all! you have 2 outs AT MOST and really less than that given the possibility of an over set and draws that will beat you.

-Good Luck... and I hope that I have satisfactorily explained (at least as I understand it) why you should look at the odds one card at the time

K_squared