Deep in Stars 500K.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
you just know your about 50/50 against his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

not to nitpick but i think its closer to 60/40

[MLG]

probably, although it depends how short you are.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
probably, although it depends how short you are.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think that i'm probably with jason on this one. one minorish point: i always get lost in these stars hands, the hhs tell you the amount you have behind right, not the total amount to start the hand? that is of some small amount of concern at this point i think.

i think that if you push preflop here, many opponents are not calling even getting right around 2:1, but i think that it is linked to the questions i asked before for many opps. 1) was the raiser a big stack for the tournament 2) was he big for the table.

i think that pushing preflop maintains a lot of folding equity against most players with hands like QT, KJ. Mostly i think that you have quite a bit of FE now, not that the s-n-g won't have some/more, but against many hands you'd clearly like to see the flop even less (those being the full set of hands that would fold preflop).

that's longwinded way of saying "i think you have plenty of FE against bad hands preflop here."

c

[Jason Strasser]

The thing I think that always pops in my head when I'm defending the SNG is that there is always a reverse answer.

So for everytime you get a better hand to fold or a hand that should call the flop with correct odds to fold, you get a hand to fold that would've doubled you up.

Like, say 66 on an ace high flop, that kind of thing. Or maybe some sort of lowish suited connector. Or even worse, say your opponent has J9o or something and is folding preflop and will fold flop unless he flops a pair. Stuff like that.

So I always think that if you have a strong hand, and I think 77 is v strong in this case, you are probably better off pushing the old fashion way. I think with a hand that is worse vs his range, but one you don't want to fold, this is an interesting option. Say... A stop and go with 97o. It might be +EV, but I haven't given it much thought.

-Jason

[MLG]

I agree with this 100%, but in SnG spots 77 is exactly on the border for me. I think you really only lose 55/66 and that 78s and down accounts for a really low % of his raise frequency generally (not everybody plays like you and me). If this were say AQ/88 or even AJ I think its definitely a push.

[citanul]

i agree that you're probably not losing very many hands that are likely to double you up (high %) in this spot (likely only 55 and 66, though possibly 44 or so, depends on the table dynamics again). i think that strassa was trying to make the more general point as well though, that some people tend to overvalue the stop and go with hands that they should rather run it out with.

i think of much more importance in this hand are the hands that you can get to fold preflop to a push instead of seeing the flop for free and outflopping you 1/3 of the time or whatever. i think that when you're right between 8 and 12 or 14bb is when you have to think the very most about the conflict in interest between folding equity and "run it out bitch, i've got the best hand." i think that here you've got just enough to make him fold a lot of hands that otherwise he'll take that free shot at you with.

c

[MLG]

You, know the more I think about it, the more I'm coming around to a push, You also have ton consider A7s/A6s in the misx as far as hands you're ahead of. Or looking at it another way, the guys you have no FE against when you push are the guys who have the wider ranges of hands and are willing to gamble with you (including with hands you beat).

If you just call this bet the pot is 102k and you have 93k left behind. Just push it preflop. I think to pull off a stop and go you need to have some reads on the players. Will the player be able to lay down top pair or even middle pair when being offered 2:1 odds??

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
If you just call this bet the pot is 102k and you have 93k left behind. Just push it preflop. I think to pull off a stop and go you need to have some reads on the players. Will the player be able to lay down top pair or even middle pair when being offered 2:1 odds??

[/ QUOTE ]

well, i don't know why you're responding to me with your post, i'm assuming it was just the bottom one in the thread.

you do understand, right, that the point of a stop and go is that 1) people will sometimes fold pocketpairs that now face an overcard 2) people will sometimes fold bottom or 2nd pair on the flop 3) they miss the flop 2/3 of the time?

c

[waveball]

This is a very intersting idea. I am such a noob.