The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4

[TheHip41]

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How does your decision change if this is $3/$6? $5/$10? $10/$20?

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Because people at 2/4 are [censored] retarded.

[hobbsmann]

don't fold.

[MrDannimal]

I've never played higher (well, I've played like 2 hours of 3/6) so I can't tell you when I'd start to give unknowns the credit for thinking about what you're having them think about, but I wouldn't do it at 2/4.

You've got to have the winner at least 6% of the time because at least that often the river raise if some goof who is excited that they have 2 pair now.

[etizzle]

I know this is a tangent, but have people been in situations where a bluff can work against better players, because it is obviously protected?

Edit: This is mterry posting under a friend's account.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
I know this is a tangent, but have people been in situations where a bluff can work against better players, because it is obviously protected?

Edit: This is mterry posting under a friend's account.

[/ QUOTE ]

A pure bluff raise is only good if the players you're up against are folding rivers a ton or they're really scared of you. It's almost never a good play especially online. It's superrare that more than 1 player would fold the river for 1 more bet after already putting in a bet. Usually, it would be correct for them to call anyway.

A better play is when you have something like 2nd pair good kicker and an obvious draw comes in, a tight/good player bets, superdonk calls, and you raise. You're very sure you have the donk beat and it's very tough for the good player to call not closing the action after you raised two players on the river.

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
I know this is a tangent, but have people been in situations where a bluff can work against better players, because it is obviously protected?

Edit: This is mterry posting under a friend's account.

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These situations arise rarely, but they do happen. However, it wouldn't happen like the action in this hand. The raise here is facing the bad player with 2 BBs and makes it far less likely he will call. Raising as a bluff hoping MP would call 2 cold just won't work nearly enough for it to be profitable. The most likely occurance would be strong player bets-fish calls-you raise. It will be tough for the strong player to call because he thinks the chances of you bluffing in this spot are slim.

[Solid_p]

This is a sure call. Whether it's protected or not, the pot is so big that calling is clearly +EV. You will be shown a worse king, a 7 or even a busted flush draw making a move on this big pot enough of the time. Him being unknown makes the call even easier.

[WalkAmongUs]

I think this is an easy call. EP is unknown. At 2/4 odds are he doesn't even know what a protected pot is.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

This is a very clear call -- all of the factors you point out might lead me to feeling that I was behind a majority of the time -- but we only need to be ahead 7% of the time for this call to be +EV. I think we are ahead at least 25% of the time against low limit, virtually unknown players.

For what its worth, I would likely call this in the live games I play in as well.

Edit: I think the protected pot theorem doesn't apply very strongly -- I think you can rule out a complete bluff (like a busted flush or straight draw), but a weaker K or other two pair hand is very possible.

[damaniac]

I think so. A couple of times this happened to me. I raised KK or something got like 4 callers, flop is something like JTx, check, I bet, call, call, call. Turn is a T, say, and it goes check, I bet, call, call, check-raise. Now he's check-raising into a protected pot (the callers are super loose donks). I think this is a potentially good move with a hand like AJ, you may have the best hand, and sometimes you get the PFR to fold an overpair. I dunno how often that actually happens though.