Size Does Matter

[A_PLUS]

Most likey hands on the flop: flush draw, str8 draw, J9 - JK, middle-pocket pair.

Less likely: AA-KK, set.

I think we are ahead, but he most likely has a large number of outs, I am raising now to get a better feel for the hand.

I pop him for 4K or so. I think it is best to see where we stand early in this hand. I would like to have the option to fold on a later street (or if he jams now), but would have a hard time doing it, if I didnt show some serious strength in the hand.

If he calls and the turn is <J non-diamond I will be jamming . I cant see an over-pair or set chancing a free diamond draw. The pot will be 100% of our stack, and I will have to call off another 5K if I check behind and he hits the river and bets.

[mlagoo]

haven't read the replies yet, but i'll take a crack.

(also, i want to say that i hope someone in this thread called this a WAWB situation. because i like a good chuckle =)

i call here. i imagine you have an aggressive image. this means that, if the SB is an observant/solid player, he will be very willing to 3bet you with a lot of cards here, which include sets, but also include 67, two big diamonds, a paired fourflush, 88, JT... essentially, a lot of hands you way ahead of, a lot of hands you are way behind, and also a few hands with strong-ish draws.

essentially, the problem that i'm having is that I can't fold TPTK on this board to a 3bet push from an SB caller.

not to mention that people hate being called OOP and will have difficulty putting you on TPTK.

my turn play will depend on a lot of things. the turn card, of course. his bet size. i will likely try to make a "timing" read (i know, ugh). i am fairly certain that if checked to on the turn, i'm betting any card that falls. i'm folding a CR (which will likely be a push) on a scare card and calling a non scare card (scare cards being, at this point, diamonds).

i'll be perfectly honest -- i am unsure what to do on the turn if he bets out. no matter what card comes.

Solid SB calls a raise of a top aggressive player and w/ loose fishy behind he fully expects to call the raise as well - unlikely to just call w/ a big pair so figure pairs JJ and lower, unlikely to play a trap hand so throw out the broadways and weak Js, suited conns certainly in range. He leads out w/ a probe into these two opponents and he's expecting to get played with. I doubt he's doing that w/ the pairs that missed - he's looking to get raised and he's planning to push. Whether he's got a made hand or the big draw is where I think the question lies - I'm expecting to see a set, 2 pair or a combo draw. Call and evaluate on the turn.

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
I call and evaluate turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
i like a raise to 4200 and call a push. jam a non-diamond turn. 44/55 are possible, (and strangely played QQ+) but i think there are too many other hands that can jam the flop, including hands you crush like Jx.

what's your position, btw?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've agreed with you on very many hands in a row.

[locutus2002]

I'd push. Any raise is going to leave you pot committed and you don't really want to see the turn.

without a read, I'd assume the player is tight (because you haven't taken notice of him).

Villain's range:

He is ahead: 44,55, 45s, jj (10 ways)
You are ahead: jks,jqs, jts,TT-66 (36 ways)
he has a big draw (flush draw only leads into 2 players OOP:assume tight) AQd, akd, atd, kqd, qtd, ktd,a2d,a3d (~10 ways)

Sanity check: Villain only calls 2pr++.
villain folds 80% of the hands hero wins .8X4K=3.2K
20% of the time villain calls and hero loses ~9K(discounted for 45 vs. J) = -1.8K

Worst case villain sees your cards and only calls hands that have value (44,55,45,jj, any two diamonds)

66% of the time villain folds hero gets .66X4K = 2.6K
16% of time villain calls hero loses 9K = -1.4K
16% of the villain calls hero wins 2K =.32K

~1.5K (about the same).

If hero calls then he will probably need to show villain his stack on a safe turn anyway. There aren't alot of turns hero wants to see.

[MLG]

you forgot all sorts of hands. 67 of diamonds, pair+flush draw. also, i don't know why you say A10 of diamonds might lead, but A8 won't. What's the difference?

[locutus2002]

didn't write them down but included them in the 10 drawing hands. 67d,78d.

ATd is better than a8d. Given the PF action AT work as a str8 and beat 99,88. a8s probably folds PF.

QQ-AA doesn't want to play a hand PF 3 ways OOP online against a fish limper. It might be different for Hoyt Corkins in the WSOP.

[MLG]

A8s folds preflop? but you included A2 and A3 in your range for big draws. You cant claim A2/A3 call preflop but A8 doesnt,

[locutus2002]

A2,A3 are pretty marginal PF, but more useful as str8 (PF). Diamonds are popular anyways [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. I don't think the flush draws matter that much because both players are EV+ because of the dead money. The number of flush draws is no more than 14 anyway. (Add a9d,a8d,a7d,a6d)