Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba

[jacksup]

I guess I mean don't think there's much to debate about whether the play was reasonable. Obviously it's also OK to fold J9s to the third raise. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

To answer your questions:

MP3 is supposedly highly aggressive. Most highly aggressive players have figured out that they should be highly aggressive with their AA/KK as well as their other hands.

I do think the fold equity plus the showdown equity plus the dead money makes this pretty safely plus EV.

I think MP3 is going to fold fairly often even if he's suspicious. That's because I think there are hands like 86s in his range.

Best,
Matt

[jacksup]

At a tough table, it might be even better. Chips are hard to come by at a tough table--try to get them any way you can.

Matt

[scott8]

I read through the hand a few times and the responses and I have come to this.

No one has any reads on you other than super-tight, although 30 minutes of playing really isn't long enough to have this image locked in completely, most players will give you the benefit of the doubt.

However, I think most good players are not going to give you credit for a monster b/c

After a stand EP raise and two callers, you just called.

You said the whole table was aware of the "mistaken" raise.

This doesn't mean anyone can call your all-in IMO, but I think if someone has a hand, like MP3, he is going to have to discount (probably not completely, but to some degree) the higher range of hands.

With all that said, even if I have pocket nines and can limit your range, a lot of players still will not call what might be a coinflip at such an early stage.

Basically, my point is that the play will work, but certainly cannot work all the time given the process of the hand.

-SC

[West]

Was there any concern on your part that you were not an unknown player to MP3 and that how you had played for the first 35 minutes would not actually be determining your image to him?

[mdouglass]

I put this scumbag on Ace Jack not suited.

[illegit]

They would affect your calculations a great deal. Once AA-QQ are assigned a very low probability of being out (JJ also low due to only 3 combos possible) ZJ's wins-when-called shoots through the roof. You can do the numbers yourself, but it should be fairly obvious. It also decreases how often he will be called, though this affect isn't as big as the aforementioned one.

[jacksup]

[ QUOTE ]
You forgot to figure in the liklihood that a better situation will arise in which to risk all of your chips when you determined calling was better than folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't forget to do that, he knew doing that would be a waste of time. You don't pass up an EV of 1500 chips, unless you hate money.

Matt

[Klepton]

i've enjoyed you only posting 7 times in the past 2 months.

please keep this up.

[locutus2002]

Your right, it would affect the numbers, I don't think you can take these hands out SB's range or the QQ out of MP1's range.

The qualitative result is that hero gets called to much for this to be a good play.

In the cases where there are multiple callers which I ignored, hero is much worse off.

Also just because someone won their qualifier online doesn't mean they won't make a difficult call even if it takes them a while.

[nath]

I like the play for the simple reason that MP3 IS so aggressive, which increases the chances that

a)he came in with a marginal hand in the first place, and
b)he might well see an opportunity to take the pot after the accidental raise.

I mean, even if he knows you don't have much, he can't call your all-in if he doesn't either.

(Edit: I don't seem to be nearly as worried about SB and MP1 as everyone else is. If ZJ has faith in his read on them, then he should fire away.)