Ace King facing big preflop raise.

naegid · #1 04-01-2005, 10:52 AM

$10+1 tournament with 26 entrants. Top 3 paid, a la SNG. Down to 10, and its hand for hand with 5 on each table.

Blinds are 75/150 I have ~3700 (average is 3900) and am on the small blind with Ace King off. Villian (~3000) is UTG and raises to 1300... What do you do?

A little background...

Villian has been fairly quiet and ~1/2 his stack has been his only preflop raise since the break (twice before in say 5/6 orbits), no one has called him yet.

I had been chip leader but lost a big pot to take me down to 2k and have basically stolen my way back to my current position. The table is pretty weak tight (even more so than i usually am!!) and i have been getting away with a lot.

jba · #2 04-01-2005, 03:09 PM

I'd dump it, villain certainly sounds very tight and it's a huge raise even considering the fact that it's his standard. It seems like you're dominated or a slight dog here most of the time, it's hard to put villain on AQ or worse, UTG, when he's raising 3-4% of hands (small sample or not).

I don't want to play OOP with AKo when the pot will be twice the size of my stack, so probably push is my only other option here and I don't like it. I'd keep my average stack and fight another day.

MoneyMoy · #3 04-01-2005, 03:44 PM

I think that with the table being weak tight, your chip stack being near the average, and the size of the blinds not putting you under any time pressure yet, you can easily fold here and be pretty confident you'll get better opportunities later.

kuro · #4 04-01-2005, 04:53 PM

I think I'd push. I just don't think I can fold AK preflop five handed where the payout structure only pays the top 3 and I'm guessing that you probably win very little unless you're 1st or 2nd. The tables going to combine soon and you're not going to be able to steal as easily. So I think I'd just have to take the gamble.

naegid · #5 04-02-2005, 05:01 AM

Having considered it i think a fold is the best play. I cant see him having anything less than Ace Queen here and more often a pocket pair.

At the time i was trying to weigh up the desire to have a decent amount of chips to try and get top 3 and the fact that i will likely have much better opportunities at a later time. Also, i had only been playing to keep myself amused while continually pressing redial to try and get UEFA cup quarter final tickets... having just achieved that my mind wasnt really on the game (thats my excuse and i'm sticking to it!).

I pushed and lost to pocket 10's. I was out the next hand.

ansky451 · #6 04-02-2005, 08:17 AM

I posted a very similar hand a few days ago. It was in the money in the stars rebuy, and the UTG raised about 2/3rd of my stack, which was about 7bbs. I had AdKd, and foolishly pushed the rest in. It seems like these early position gross overbets are usually very strong. He had kings and i busted out.

JohnG · #7 04-02-2005, 05:38 PM

I doubt he's so tight that he folds AQ, AJ utg in a 5 handed game. I push.

naegid · #8 04-02-2005, 10:33 PM

I doubt he will fold any hand he makes that raise with. If we assume he has Ace Jack to Ace King or any pocket pair above, say, sevens is pushing profitable?

I have little mtt experience but my gut instinct is still that i misplayed this hand by rasing all in.

JohnG · #9 04-03-2005, 09:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt he will fold any hand he makes that raise with. If we assume he has Ace Jack to Ace King or any pocket pair above, say, sevens is pushing profitable?

I have little mtt experience but my gut instinct is still that i misplayed this hand by rasing all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on very rough and quick calculations, I think you've found a read on his range and play where it is marginal to push. Probably around break even, and with the BB still to act, probably a fold. If there is any fold equity, or if he can have more hands, it's a push. Being able to rule out AA/KK for that size raise would also be a push, if he can have dominated aces. I think he can probably have more hands than you are giving him, but I may easily be wrong. He can't have KQs, ATs, lower pairs?

kuro · #10 04-03-2005, 10:42 AM

Against a villains range of AA-77,AK-AJ you're about a 52:48 favorite. If villain's range doesn't include
AA/KK because he doesn't raise so much to kill his action then you're about 55:45 favorite. If villain's range is a little bigger and doesn't include AA/KK say QQ-77,AK-AT,A9s, KQ then you're about 60:40 favorite and if this bigger range includes AA/KK then you're about 57.5:42.5 favorite.