Final 4, holding Ace King facing an all in from the big stack.

[Adjective]

I would just call it, but I would need to know a bit more about the player? When did he get his big stack, how has he been playing with his big stack, making moves like this a lot?

On one hand he has enough chips to risk losing a coinflip situation by going all in with a middle/high pocket pair/high connectors, but on the other hand, if he had something big like a high pocket pair, do you really think he would make such a quick move as to go all in, wouldn't you expect someone in his position to try and play them as slowly as possible to get as many chips out of you as he can, and *not* risk coinflips/allins? Again, this all depends on what you have seen so far from this player as to his style

[DonButtons]

Instant call, period...lloyd's first post clearly explains why!

[Klak]

gotta call. its already been said, but you are at worst(by your read) a 5% underdog, at best your a huge favorite. call.

[Matt Finkelstein]

This is realy a great discussion. I know the consensus is "easy call", but this guy had the "stones" to put you all in. You think he has AJ? (I wasn't "there", so my read is only from actions in a vaccum, coupled with the fact that he's the chip leader looking at $2000 if he doesn't screw it up). This screams real hand that is afraid of overs on the flop. My guess is 77-JJ. Put a gun to my head 99. I think there is a 60-70% chance that hero is a small dog - and equally likely to dominate than be dominated (15%). If someone wants to run the numbers on these "assumptions", be my guest. If someone wants to call me a girlie man, I'll have to live with it. Results?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
If we assume that your percentage of the prize pool is equal to the percentage of chips in play, and everyone is guaranteed $500:

If you fold (assuming stack sizes are before blinds):

T32000/T130000 = .246 * (2000+1200+700) = $959

If you call:

Based on the hands you put him on (including AA and KK), you will win 60%, tie 6%, and lose 34%.

If you win, T72000/T130000 = .55 * 3900 = $2145
If you tie, T36000/T130000 = .28 * 3900 = $1092
If you lose = $0

($2145 * .6) + ($1092 * .06) + ($0 * .34) = $1695

$1353 > $959 = CALL

and it's not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey, I'm new to these things, and I have a question. How close is your assumption that chips = $ to the actual payout structure. obviously, if the bubble was at 3rd it wouldn't be. but what would the structure have to be for this assumption to be perfectly correct. I'm just trying to get a gauge. would it be that first paid 4x, 2nd paid 3x, 3rd paid 2x, and 4th paid x?

[naegid]

First off, thanks for the exceptional level of the feedback!

Anyhow, i called (no problem with my stones... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) and was delighted when villain sheepishly turned over Ace 6. I was less delighted when he flopped his 6 and no king was forthcoming. I go home now.

I should point out that I'm not in any way worried about exiting the tournament in this fashion- i've put far worse beats on people to start complaining!

[naegid]

Hi Rybones,

I don't doubt that Villain has the capability to make such a play, i just dont think he'd make it against me. I dont think he respects my game enough...

[naegid]

Lloyd/Rockdoc/Vee Quiva

This is exactly the sort of analysis and discussion that i was hoping to see- so, thanks!

If hands such as 9 10, 10 jack were included would that change the figures? I'm guessing it wouldnt drastically alter Lloyds approximation(?) of winning 60%?

At the time, had Villain's hand been face up and he had live cards, 89s say, i would probably of folded judging 60-40 to be too much risk for the reward. I guess i would have been wrong?

I very much appreciate the level of detail the analysis has reached, do you work at this level when you are playing or does previous experience provide a good approximation?