this stuff pisses me off

[Spicymoose]

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Does anyone care to do the math assuming a turn 3bet is always at least two pair?

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Board: Ks Ts 5d 8d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 13.6364 % 13.64% 00.00% { KhJd }
Hand 2: 86.3636 % 86.36% 00.00% { KTs, K8s, K5s, KTo, K8o, K5o }

Assume you call a 3bet and call the river bet, so you put in 2 more on the turn 1 on the river:

.86 * 3 = -2.58BB

Pot will be 9.5BB on river not counting the 3 you put in.

.136 * 9.5 = 1.29

1.29-2.58 = -1.28 BB.

So you lose -1.28BB when he has 2 pair here.

x is % of the time he has 2 pair:
So 1.28x = 9.5(1-x)
10.78x = 9.5
x = .88
So he needs 2 pair here >88% of the time to make 3betting -EV.

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What about the times he doesn't have 2 pair, but improves to beat us?