"Official" Live at the Bike thread (9/19)

[cwsiggy]

But if you run something say three times, don't you lower your variance i.e. - have a chance at making some of your losses back. When you say EV - do you simply mean your odds of winning(sucking out) - I can see how they don't change (though they do change a little cause if you miss the first time and you have 8 outs - you now have 8 outs over the deck -1 and the third time 8 outs over deck -2)

[Ratman138]

highland park is in dallas, texas

[Jive Dadson]

[ QUOTE ]
But if you run something say three times, don't you lower your variance

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I recently posted an explanation as to why it lowers the variance. But surely Mo has enough of a bank that he is not concerned about variance when making a $1300 play. More importantly, if you are making a negative EV play, reducing the variance cannot make the play favorable.

[Kevmath]

[ QUOTE ]
highland park is in dallas, texas

[/ QUOTE ]

There are many Highland Park's in the US, now if the one in Dallas is home of the Tomahawks then you win.

[cwsiggy]

Nice pot with the set. God I love hitting sets with ragged boards. Even better though when someone has top two that misses.

[Jive Dadson]

Sheesh. Robert Heinlein was right about porcine singing lessons.

[cwsiggy]

Not to harp on this so are you guys (Bart and Tuch) saying that with x number of outs you have, you are 100% to hit it at least once? I'm not sure that works out unless you have what - 15 outs?? (2.1-1)

[Jive Dadson]

Let's take it to the extreme. Assume they run the river as many times as the cards will allow, not burning any cards. The result will be that both players get their EV exactly - zero variance. If Mo's EV in making the call was, say, -$50, then by running it "completely", he would always get $1250 back from his $1300 "investment". Obviously, he would have been better off (by 50 bucks) to fold.

Dave , ist that the reason why people like Phil ivey are so successfull, they constanty raise and re raise in position...they do this so often that you never give them crdit for having a hand ..meanwhile they are stealing and accumulating chips, and before you know it you call them all in and find u are up against a monster!!!

[Ratman138]

why do they all have matching hats? is this some weird family reunion?