Implied value and draws

BZ_Zorro · #1 05-08-2005, 03:43 AM

Does implied value make it ok to call a pot sized bet on a draw?

Just had a conversation with a marine who said it was...he ended up threatening to "talk to his IT buddies" and get me drafted. Neither or us is giving a quarter, so we're gonna let the experts decide. He wanted to bet me $100 that your opinion would be in favor of him, but said to forget it later on.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

UTG+1 ($109.6)
UTG+2 ($221.97)
MP1 ($68.5)
Hero ($87.5)
MP3 ($176.02)
CO ($98.5)
Button ($145.3)
SB ($177.8)
BB ($83.1)
UTG ($103.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $1, MP3 calls $1, 2 folds, SB (poster) completes, BB raises to $3, UTG+1 calls $3, Hero calls $3, MP3 calls $3, SB folds.

Flop: ($17) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $15, MP3 folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $15.

Turn: ($47) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero goes all in, UTG+1 calls $68.50.

River: ($115.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $115.50

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has 9s Ts (straight, ten high).
Hero has 6h 6d (full house, sixes full of sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins $115.50. 

Two questions:
Is calling a pot sized bet with his hand a good play?
If he somehow expected me to go all in on the turn, was it a good play?

-Skeme- · #2 05-08-2005, 03:49 AM

It depends. The stacks need to be deep enough for your call to be correct. You need to have a decent draw. Position is nice. He was double gutted so that probably qualifies as a decent draw. His draw is pretty concealed also so it'd probably get paid off. He got it in with the best of it.

I'm not math savvy enough to add it all up. Someone else probably can.

Dignan · #3 05-08-2005, 03:55 AM

1. No
2. No

-Skeme- · #4 05-08-2005, 03:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
1. No
2. No

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm fairly certain you're wrong. Maybe not in this exact situation, but calling pot bets with OESDs or double gutters with deep stacks isn't wrong.

mscags · #5 05-08-2005, 03:59 AM

When you add in his implied odds he was getting something around 100:15 which is more like 6:1 which is more than enough for a double gut shot or open ended straight draw. However even though it worked out in the end, I think it is an incorrect call unless he is positive that he can get the rest of your money.

-Skeme- · #6 05-08-2005, 04:01 AM

When you say "it worked out in the end" I assume you mean he got it all in when he still had best hand?

creedofhubris · #7 05-08-2005, 07:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. No
2. No

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm fairly certain you're wrong. Maybe not in this exact situation, but calling pot bets with OESDs or double gutters with deep stacks isn't wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are 5:1 to hit your OESD. You are getting 2:1 calling a pot-sized bet. That means, if you hit, over the course of the hand, he needs to pay you off more than 3x the bet you just called, to make your call correct.

That's it, that's all you need to know. If you're certain he will pay you off a lot, you can call a pot bet.

This is often considered a bad play, because how can you be sure?

Brian462 · #8 05-08-2005, 07:24 AM

His call is bad I think. He has alot of ground to make up on later streets whenever he makes his hand, and if he knows he is winning your entire stack every time he gets there it's still not that profitable. Add in all the times he makes his hand and you fold, and those times he makes his hand and loses and it becomes a fairly -EV play.

If your stacks were bigger it would be a better play.

Jordan Olsommer · #9 05-08-2005, 10:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Does implied value make it ok to call a pot sized bet on a draw?

Two questions:
Is calling a pot sized bet with his hand a good play?
If he somehow expected me to go all in on the turn, was it a good play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Like every other question in poker, "it depends". It depends on how likely you are to hit your draw, of course, but also how much you can conceivably milk out of your opponent if you do hit your draw (which is why you simply can't justify calling a huge bet with a gutshot by including "if I hit it, I win every chip on the table from everyone still in the hand" in your calculations).

So let's look at the math:
Your opponent has a double bellybuster draw, and is looking for a J or 7, so he has 8 outs on the next card only (I'm assuming that you're going to tap him on fourth street pretty much regardless of what comes up), so he's (from his point of view, not knowing our cards) 8/47 = .1702 to hit his nicely-concealed straight, and thus of course .8298 that he's going to miss on the next card and miss his chance because you're going to go all-in.

so what's his expectation?

.1702 he hits the straight and goes all-in, of which
- .1332 = he wins with his straight
- .037 = he hits his draw but you end up winning (filling up or making quads on the river)

so his real "win percentage" here (assuming youre not going to fold your set, no way, no how) is .1332

so .1332 of the time he wins all the chips he can, and .8668 of the time he loses his pot-sized investment

EV = (.1332)(115.50) + (.8668)(-15) =

...drumroll please...

$2.38.

Assuming you will always tap him on the turn, and that you will never fold, he makes $2.38 each time he makes that play.

Christ, it hardly seems worth even the emotional anguish of waiting on the outcome, does it? :P

Jordan Olsommer · #10 05-08-2005, 11:11 AM

Oh yeah, and in case you're not fond of mathematics and instead prefer an anecdotal answer to your question, this is how Stuey Ungar won the WSOP in 1980:

Doyle Brunson: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Stu Ungar: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Doyle raises pre-flop, Stu calls, Pot = about $17,000.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Doyle makes a pot-sized bet ($17,000), Stu calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Stu bets $30,000, Doyle goes all-in, Stu calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Stu wins the hand with 5-high straight.

Stu called on the flop getting only 2-to-1 on an almost 12-to-1 shot, but as he later said, "I knew that if a 3 came up that I was going to bust [Doyle]"

So again, it depends.