When you put them on a flush draw...

[WakeHeel]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter

CO (t3015)
Button (t1970)
SB (t3340)
BB (t1845)
UTG (t1750)
UTG+1 (t1005)
MP1 (t1330)
MP2 (t1810)
Hero (t1765)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t90</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls t60.

Flop: (t195) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t120</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t1755</font>

BB has been calling a lot of preflop raises and is fairly aggressive on the flop. With this move, I'm 95% certain he's on a flush draw...

My read is that he would've repopped with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. So at worst I'm facing one over. There's a small chance he's go the two and now he's got 5 extra outs. If he has the two it's essentially a coinflip. Can I make reasonably make this call?

[raaustge]

Is it possible he has AQ and doesnt want to see any more spades perhaps putting you on a flush draw? Just a thought. How do you figure AK or AJ but not AQ?

[bravos1]

give us some more on your read of this guy. You said he has been calling a lot of preflop raises and is aggresive. Has he been calling these raised with strong hands or marginal hands? How loose is he? If he has been calling many preflop raises with marginal hands he could have Q5s and flopped 2 pair(especially if you think there is a chance he has a 2??). He could also easily have AQo and call your raise from the BB for 2/3rds the cost.

I think your post-flop bet shows timidness at being about 60% of the pot. He put out the feelers by checking to you and figured that if you had AA or KK you would bet the pot or better. With that weaker bet, he figured his TPTK was in good position.

For me.. this is an easy laydown given everything that has transpired up to this point. As you said, he could be on a draw, but if he has AK [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], then he has 15 outs. Or he can already have you, and you'd be drawing to only 2 outs and one of them could be counterfeited (K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) if the turn/river is another [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it possible he has AQ and doesnt want to see any more spades perhaps putting you on a flush draw? Just a thought. How do you figure AK or AJ but not AQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

He put him solely on a spade draw and the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] came on the flop.. the is why he did not say AQ.. although I agree, he could easily have AQo or suited non-spade as I mentioned in my other post.

[bravos1]

so what was the outcome here?

[WakeHeel]

So as for my read, he had been calling with some marginal hands. I didn't think he would make this kind of play with AQ. I also didn't think he would make this kind of play with two pair, because I watched him try and milk a pot with two pair earlier. As for my bet size, 120 into a 210 pot isn't exactly a weak bet. It's not potsized, and it's a under 10% of his stack but at this point in the tournament I don't think it's a "weak" bet.

[AaronO]

This hearkens to the saying "you can't win a tournament early, only lose it."

I've got to believe you can find much better places to get your money in than this spot. IMO, fold, and catch him later when you have way the better of it.

[beetyjoose]

[ QUOTE ]
As for my bet size, 120 into a 210 pot isn't exactly a weak bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would call this a weak bet. As an opposing player this smells of an obligatory bet after a raise. Even if he has a flush draw, he probably sensed you didn't love the flop. A flush draw seems like a strong possibillity. However, he could have something like KQ or JQ too.

[WakeHeel]

Well, I would've made the same bet with AQ as I would've with 10/10. I guess that's just the way I like to play. I'm willing to make a tough decision if he puts me to the test. Sure, it's essentially a continuation bet but if I get popped here, I'm comfortable enough with my reads to get a sense for what he has. Remember, this is an aggressive player who's going after pots and, I forgot to mention, he recently has his stack chopped...so it did enter my mind that he was making a play.

As for what Aaron says, about losing the tournament early. You're right and that's a theory I rarely stray from. A tourny can never be won early but it certainly can be lost. I was tired though...

So I called, and he had K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm 95% certain he's on a flush draw...

[/ QUOTE ]

if you believe this, then obviously call. however, you're way overestimating the frequency he has a draw here. fold.