giants BSP this week?

[jedinite]

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1. are those picks in green those which have one side being preferred by 60%+ of the public?

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From the FAQ linked on said page:
The Wagerline "All Players" consensus shows the number of picks in the cash contests made by all players. If the percentage of picks exceeds 59%, the game is highlighted in green.

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2. is there any evidence that the trend is more/less effective when the public is more overwhelmingly (say 70%+ or more) in favor of one side?

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all the records are there, it would be a non-trivial exercise to pull these stats.

It's also worth saying that the consensus picks are having their best ATS year ever this year (currently right at 50%).


These numbers are not a meaningful "fade simply because they're green" indicator. what's more useful, IMO, is as an indicator when the public opinion is dramatically one-sided and yet there's been little to no movement in the public line....

[legend42]

I think the classic BSP team this week is Jacksonville. I work with a guy who is Joe Q. NFL Bettor (just the right balance of football knowledge and capping/gambling ignorance) and he told me yesterday JAX is his favorite pick. I muttered something like "uh huh, Titans home after a bye vs. division rival, Bennett back, McNair healthier, Taylor doubtful, Smith questionable- yeah, I definitely like the Jags giving more than a field goal here..."

He scoffed and said all that doesn't matter because (actual quote) "the Jaguars are coming together as a team, the Titans are falling apart. Easy 4 point cover."

Gold, I'm telling you.

[sublime]

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seems like everyone I know is all over this one, which has me realllly wary.

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i am on the eagles +7.5 -105