betgo's red zone idea in practice

pfkaok · #1 10-25-2005, 01:41 AM

so i had recently been playing fairly aggressively and BB was aggressive, so i thought i'm probably over 40% vs. his range. losing here i'd be in redzone. winning im in good shape, and folding i'm in midzone.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) converter

Hero (t3225)
SB (t15455)
BB (t2370)
UTG (t1550)
UTG+1 (t10870)
MP1 (t3485)
MP2 (t2460)
CO (t1265)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises to t400, 1 fold, BB raises to t2370, Hero calls t1970.

Lloyd · #2 10-25-2005, 01:51 AM

If you think you're 40% against his range then you need 1.5 to 1 odds just to make this a neutral decision. You're getting almost exactly 1.5 to 1 odds. So this isn't a +EV call. Nor is it a -EV call. It all gets back to whether or not variance is good for variance's stake. You certainly have a big enough stack to play with if you fold. And I think a goal in any money making activity should be to maximize returns while limiting variance. So I wouldn't make this call but am certainly open to other ideas as to why it's a good thing.

pfkaok · #3 10-25-2005, 01:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It all gets back to whether or not variance is good for variance's stake.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly. thats why i felt like at this point variance is my friend since either way i'll be in a more profitable zone stackwise.

Lloyd · #4 10-25-2005, 02:00 AM

I don't understand why you think the "red" zone is more profitable than a middle zone.

Exitonly · #5 10-25-2005, 02:02 AM

yea, this is definitely not right.

Just because more hands become profitable to push/play aggressivly. Doesnt mean it's amore profitable 'zone' to be in.

pfkaok · #6 10-25-2005, 02:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why you think the "red" zone is more profitable than a middle zone

[/ QUOTE ]

this thread:

better to be in redzone?

Lloyd · #7 10-25-2005, 02:14 AM

Well only you and betgo thought that concept had any merit to begin with. I don't believe it does.

0evg0 · #8 10-25-2005, 02:17 AM

I give the theory 1.5 thumbs up.

I don't know, I'm seeing some parallels to Giga' Q3o in this.

Lloyd · #9 10-25-2005, 02:19 AM

It's not even close.

pfkaok · #10 10-25-2005, 02:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I give the theory 1.5 thumbs up.

I don't know, I'm seeing some parallels to Giga' Q3o in this.

[/ QUOTE ]

heh. yep. i was thinking the same thing.